Survey of expectations (M14)

Purpose of this collection

The primary purpose of the Survey of Expectations is to capture the expectations that forecasters and business leaders in New Zealand have on a variety of economic data. The results of this survey support our forecasting, policy development, and research activity. It is a key statistical series published externally, and is used by central banks, researchers, financial institutions and commentators.

Survey Methodology and Coverage Characteristics

This survey is conducted quarterly in February, May, August and November, and is sent to the field the day after the consumers price index (CPI) data is released by Stats NZ. The data collection includes perceptions and expectations regarding monetary conditions, consumer price index, interest rates, exchange rates, gross domestic product, hourly earnings, unemployment rate and house prices. Aside from the questions on monetary conditions, the survey asks respondents to provide quantitative expectations for these variables.

Since October 2023, the Survey of Expectations fieldwork was carried out by Research New Zealand – Rangahau Aotearoa. The new research provider was selected through a competitive procurement process, as the contract with the previous provider, the NielsonIQ expired in September 2023. 

Methodology used to calculate the series on the M14 table.

Outlier exclusion. When calculating mean expectations, outliers are excluded from the calculation. Within each series, we consider a response an outlier if any observed value is three standard deviations (denoted by σ) away from the mean or average (denoted by µ) i.e.  

outlier=μ ±3σ

Once outliers are removed, mean expectations are calculated in the following way: 

Mean calculations. The mean estimates are calculated by taking the sum of responses and dividing them by the number of observations

Periodicity

The data is collected quarterly, and goes into field after the consumers price index (CPI) inflation data have been released by Stats NZ.

Timeliness

We release data in the first or second week of the second month of the reference quarter.

Access by the public

Statistics release calendar

The statistics release calendar provides a long-term plan of scheduled releases. We update and release the calendar on the first working day of the month.

View the statistics release calendar

Integrity

Dissemination of terms and conditions under which official statistics are produced, including confidentiality of individual responses

The results of the survey represent expectations held by the respondents and in no way represent our views or forecasts. To preserve anonymity, each respondent is assigned a unique numeric code by Research New Zealand – Rangahau Aotearoa. We have no information linking codes to respondent names.

Provision of information about revisions and advance notice of major changes in methodology

We do not revise the survey. Respondents are notified of changes to the survey questionnaire prior to them participating in the current survey. For example, this may include an explanation of a new or replacement variable for which the respondent's expectation is sought.

Quality

Dissemination of documentation on methodology and sources used in preparing statistics

The questions asked can be found in the survey template.

View the survey template

Dissemination of statistics that support statistical cross-checks and provide assurance of reasonableness

The survey results are published on our website. Other estimates of inflation expectations are published in the ANZ Business Outlook Survey.

ANZ Business Outlook Survey

The RBNZ Survey of Expectations asks respondents questions relating to perceptions and expectations on monetary conditions, consumer price index, interest rates, exchange rates, gross domestic product, balance of payments, hourly earnings and unemployment rate. Apart from the monetary conditions questions, the survey asks respondents to provide quantitative expectations for these variables.

This survey is run by an external survey provider on behalf of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. This survey uses a targeted sample of respondents and is therefore not a representative sample of the New Zealand public. The data is hence unweighted.

In line with similar surveys conducted internationally (see the Philadelphia Fed - Survey of Professional Forecasters, and ECB - Survey of Professional Forecasters), we currently sample 30 -50 respondents. This sample includes professional forecasters, along with business leaders who develop forecast-based expectations.

Perception of Monetary Conditions (net %)

We ask respondents about their perceptions of (i) current monetary policy settings, and their expectations of monetary conditions in (ii) one quarter’s time, and (iii) one year into future. 

Respondents are asked to give an answer ranging from 1 (“Very Tight”) to 7 (“Very Relaxed”), with 4 being “Neutral”. The series published for each of the three time horizons is the net percentage of respondents that believe monetary policy is tight, that is:

(No. of respondents that think monetary conditions are tight (1-3) - No. of respondents that think monetary conditions are relaxed (5-7)) / (Total number of respondents) X 100

Annual CPI growth

The consumers price index (CPI) as published by Statistics New Zealand for all groups is the most widely recognised and understood measure of inflation. We ask respondents for their expectations of the annual percentage change (the headline inflation rate) (i) one year out and (ii) two years out from the last known actual CPI inflation published by Stats NZ. Additionally, since September 2017, we ask respondents their expectations of the annual CPI inflation at longer horizons of (iii) five years out, and (iv) ten years out.

We publish the mean of responses received, for each of these four series.

Formerly, we collected expectations of the quarterly percentage change in CPI for both the current quarter, and the next quarter, but this was discontinued in June 2017.

Stats NZ: Consumers Price Index (CPI)

Interest rates and the Official Cash Rate

We ask respondents of their expectations of the 10-year government bond yield traded in the domestic money market at (i) the end of the current quarter and (ii) one year out.

Starting in September 2017, we also ask respondents of their expectations of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at (i) the end of the current quarter, and (ii) one year out. Further, from August 2020, we also ask respondents for their expectations of (iii) the OCR 10 years ahead and (iv) the 10 year average of the OCR.

We discontinued the expectations for the 90-day bank bill yield in June 2017.

We publish the mean of the responses received, for each of these six series.

Exchange rates

We ask respondents of their expectations of the spot exchange rate for the NZ dollar against the US dollar and the Australian dollar. We assume that businesses involved in transactions with other countries probably form expectations of future currency movements against those countries. For each currency, we ask for the mid-rate, foreign currency/NZD (that is, how much foreign currency one NZ dollar is worth; for example, US $0.75 cents = NZ$1.00) exchange rate at the end of the next quarter, as well as for one year out.

We publish the mean of the responses received, for each of these four series.

GDP Growth

The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), published by Stats NZ, is one measure of real domestic economic activity. We ask respondents about their expectations of the annual average percentage change in the real GDP (production measure) (i) one year out and (ii) two years out. We formerly collected respondents’ expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter of the seasonally adjusted quarterly percentage change in real production based GDP as reported by Statistics New Zealand, but discontinued this in June 2017.

We publish the mean of the responses received, for each of these two series.

Stats NZ: Gross domestic product

Average Hourly Earnings

Average hourly earnings (private sector, ordinary time) as reported in Stats NZ’s Quarterly Employment Survey, is a commonly used measure of private sector salary and wage movements. We ask respondents for their expectations of the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings for (i) one year out (in the coming year) and (ii) two years out (the following year).

We publish the mean of the responses received, for each of these two series.

Stats NZ: Quarterly labour market statistics

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate as measured and reported in Stats NZ’s Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) is based on the International Labour Organisation standards, and is the only measure of the unemployment rate in New Zealand recognised as being internationally comparable. Individuals are designated under this definition, as being unemployed only if they are actively seeking work and are available to start work.

We ask respondents for their expectations of the unemployment rate as measured in the HLFS for (i) one year out (in the coming year) and (ii) two years out (the following year).

We publish the mean of the responses received, for each of these two series.

Stats NZ: Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS)

House prices

The Quotable Value (QV) Quarterly House Price Index measures the movement in house prices for local council areas throughout New Zealand, providing an indicator of capital growth. Starting in September 2017, we ask respondents for their expectations of the annual percentage change in the QV Quarterly House Price Index for (i) one year out (in the coming year) and (ii) two years out (the following year).

We publish the mean of the responses received, for each of these two series.

Symbols and conventions for summary table

General notes

• Individual figures may not sum to the totals due to rounding
• Percentage changes are calculated on unrounded numbers
• You are free to copy, distribute and adapt these statistics subject to the conditions listed on our copyright page.