Survey of expectations - M14

Released
07 August 2017 03:00 p.m.
Next release
06 November 2017 03:00 p.m.
Source
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Periodicity
Quarterly
Quarterly CPI growth (%) Annual CPI growth (%) Perception of monetary conditions (Net %)
Date End of current quarter1 Next quarter1 1 year out 2 years out End of current quarter Next quarter 1 year out
Previous years:
Sep 2015 0.36 0.31 1.46 1.94 -48.40 -62.90 -56.50
Sep 2016 0.34 0.27 1.26 1.65 -53.80 -63.50 -67.30
Quarterly:
Dec 2016 0.23 0.35 1.29 1.68 -57.70 -50.00 -53.80
Mar 2017 0.47 0.46 1.56 1.92 -50.00 -46.90 -29.70
Jun 2017 0.41 0.53 1.92 2.17 -62.30 -60.40 -39.60
Sep 2017 - - 1.77 2.09 -48.90 -40.40 -14.90
  1. This data was discontinued in June 2017. See Series description for further details

The Data: Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness

Coverage characteristics

This survey is conducted in February, May, August and November by The Nielsen Company for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The data includes perceptions and expectations on Monetary Conditions, Consumer Price Index, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Gross Domestic Product, Balance of Payments, Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. Apart from the monetary conditions questions, the survey asks respondents to provide quantitative expectations for these variables.

The survey results are published as the "Survey of Expectations".

Periodicity

Quarterly

Timeliness

Data is released in the first or second week of the second month of the quarter.

Access by the public

Statistics release calendar

The Statistics Release Calendar provides a long-term plan of scheduled releases. It is updated and released on the first working day of the month.

Integrity

Dissemination of terms and conditions under which official statistics are produced, including confidentiality of individual responses

The results of the survey represent expectations held by the respondents and in no way represent the views or forecasts of the Reserve Bank. To preserve anonymity, each respondent is assigned a unique numeric code by Nielsen. The Reserve Bank has no information linking codes to respondent names.

Provision of information about revisions and advance notice of major changes in methodology

The survey does not get revised. Respondents are notified of changes to the survey questionnaire, prior to them participating in the current survey. For example, this may include an explanation of a new or replacement variable for which the respondent's expectation is being sought.

Quality

Dissemination of documentation on methodology and sources used in preparing statistics

The questions asked can be found in the survey template.

Dissemination of statistics that support statistical cross-checks and provide assurance of reasonableness

The survey results are published on the Reserve Bank's website. Other estimates of inflation expectations are published in the ANZ Business Outlook Survey and Aon Economists Survey.

The Reserve Bank Survey of Expectations asks respondents questions relating to perceptions and expectations on Monetary Conditions, Consumer Price Index, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Gross Domestic Product, Balance of Payments, Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. Apart from the monetary conditions questions, the survey asks respondents to provide quantitative expectations for these variables.

Download a copy of the survey template is available.

Monetary conditions (net %)

This attempts to capture respondents' broad perceptions of current monetary policy settings and their expectations of the future stance of policy in one quarter's time and one year out.

Prices

The Consumers Price Index (CPI) as published by Statistics New Zealand for all groups is the most widely recognised and understood measure of inflation. Expectations of the annual percentage change ("the headline rate") one and two years out (from the last known actual) are collected. Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter of the quarterly percentage change in the CPI were collected but have been discontinued in June 2017.

Interest rates

The survey collects expectations of the 10 year government bond yield traded in the domestic money market. The expectations for the 90 day bank bill yield were discontinued in June 2017.

Exchange rates

Expectations of the US dollar and Australian dollar currencies are collected. It is assumed that businesses involved in transactions with other countries probably form expectations of future currency movements against those countries. The mid-rate, foreign currency/NZ (i.e. how much foreign currency one NZ dollar is worth, e.g. US $0.75 cents = NZ$1.00) exchange rate is asked for the end of the next quarter as well as for one year out.

Growth

Expectations of the measure of real domestic economic activity are collected for the annual average percentage change in the real GDP production one and two years out. Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter of the seasonally adjusted quarterly percentage change in real production based GDP as reported by Statistics New Zealand were collected but have been discontinued in June 2017.

Labour market

Expectations about the change in average hourly earnings (private sector, ordinary time) as reported in Statistics New Zealand's Quarterly Employment Survey. This is a commonly used measure of private sector salary and wage movements. The expected annual percentage change for the coming year and the next year is collected.

Expectations of the unemployment rate as measured by Statistics New Zealand's Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS). The official HLFS measure is based on international Labour Organisation Standards and is the only measure of the unemployment rate in New Zealand recognised as being internationally comparable. Individuals are designated under this definition, as being unemployed only if they are actively seeking work and are available to start work.

Changes to survey questions
The Reserve Bank has reviewed the use of the Survey of Expectations (M14). Taking feedback received following consultation last year into consideration we have implemented changes to the survey questions. From the September quarter we added questions on price inflation expectations, and removed questions that are not widely used.

The question changes are as follows:

 

Currently collected

Change

Prices - The Consumers Price Index (CPI) as published by Statistics New Zealand for all groups

Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter of the quarterly percentage change in the CPI.

Removed: Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter.

Expectations of the annual percentage change one and two years out.

Added: Longer outlook with five and ten year expectations.

Interest rates - expectations of short and long-term interest rates on securities traded in the domestic money market

Expectations for the 90 day bank bill and the 10-year government bond market yield both at the end of the current quarter and one year out.

Replaced expectations of short-term interest rates (90 day bank bill) with same horizon Official Cash Rate (OCR) expectation.

Growth – expectations of change in real production-based gross domestic product (GDP)

Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter of the quarterly percentage change in GDP.

Removed: Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter.

Expectations of the annual percentage change one and two years out.

No change

Housing prices –change in house prices measured by the Quotable Value Quarterly House Price Index

None

Added: Expectations of the annual percentage change one and two years out.

We will look to publish data for the new questions in the future once data from several quarters are available.

New presentation of Excel data files

The new format for our Excel data files have been rolled out to the Survey of Expectations statistics (M14) on 7 August 2017.

The most notable changes in the Excel data files are:

  • Data presented in vertical format with no extra columns, bold numbers, merged cells or any other formatting. This will make it easier for data users to transform the file into other ‘machine friendly’ formats such as .csv.
  • Two extra tabs – ‘Table Description’ and ‘Series Definitions’ that contain supplementary information about the table and the data.
  • The data tab has two extra rows: unit and series ID linked to the Series Definitions.

There will be no change to the presentation of summary data in the html web pages.

If you have any questions, please contact us at stats-info@rbnz.govt.nz.

7 August 2017

Symbols and conventions for summary table

0 Value rounded to zero
- Zero or not applicable
.. Not available
bold Revised/new
italics Provisional
light red background Historical

General notes

  • Individual figures may not sum to the totals due to rounding
  • Percentage changes are calculated on unrounded numbers
  • You are free to copy, distribute and adapt these statistics subject to the conditions listed on our copyright page.