Survey of expectations (M14)

The data: coverage, periodicity, and timeliness

Coverage characteristics

This survey is conducted in February, May, August and November by The Nielsen Company for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The data includes perceptions and expectations on Monetary Conditions, Consumer Price Index, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Gross Domestic Product, Balance of Payments, Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. Apart from the monetary conditions questions, the survey asks respondents to provide quantitative expectations for these variables.

The survey results are published as the "Survey of Expectations".

Respondents for this survey include a mixture of professional forecasters, economists and industry leaders operating in New Zealand.

Periodicity

Quarterly

Timeliness

Data is released in the first or second week of the second month of the quarter.

Access by the public

Statistics release calendar

The Statistics Release Calendar provides a long-term plan of scheduled releases. It is updated and released on the first working day of the month.

View the Statistics Release Calendar.

Integrity

Dissemination of terms and conditions under which official statistics are produced, including confidentiality of individual responses

The results of the survey represent expectations held by the respondents and in no way represent the views or forecasts of the Reserve Bank. To preserve anonymity, each respondent is assigned a unique numeric code by Nielsen. The Reserve Bank has no information linking codes to respondent names.

Provision of information about revisions and advance notice of major changes in methodology

The survey does not get revised. Respondents are notified of changes to the survey questionnaire, prior to them participating in the current survey. For example, this may include an explanation of a new or replacement variable for which the respondent's expectation is being sought.

Quality

Dissemination of documentation on methodology and sources used in preparing statistics

The questions asked can be found in the survey template.

Dissemination of statistics that support statistical cross-checks and provide assurance of reasonableness

The survey results are published on the Reserve Bank's website. Other estimates of inflation expectations are published in the ANZ Business Outlook Survey.

The Reserve Bank Survey of Expectations asks respondents questions relating to perceptions and expectations on Monetary Conditions, Consumer Price Index, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Gross Domestic Product, Balance of Payments, Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. Apart from the monetary conditions questions, the survey asks respondents to provide quantitative expectations for these variables.

Download a copy of the survey template.

Monetary conditions (net %)

This attempts to capture respondents' broad perceptions of current monetary policy settings and their expectations of the future stance of policy in one quarter's time and one year out.

Prices

The Consumers Price Index (CPI) as published by Statistics New Zealand for all groups is the most widely recognised and understood measure of inflation. Expectations of the annual percentage change ("the headline rate") one and two years out (from the last known actual) are collected. Expectations of the annual percentage change for a longer outlook of five and ten years out are also collected (from September 2017). Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter of the quarterly percentage change in the CPI were collected but have been discontinued in June 2017.

Interest rates

The survey collects expectations of the 10 year government bond yield traded in the domestic money market at the end of the current quarter and one year out. Expectations of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) for the same horizon are also collected (from September 2017). The expectations for the 90 day bank bill yield were discontinued in June 2017.

Exchange rates

Expectations of the US dollar and Australian dollar currencies are collected. It is assumed that businesses involved in transactions with other countries probably form expectations of future currency movements against those countries. The mid-rate, foreign currency/NZ (i.e. how much foreign currency one NZ dollar is worth, e.g. US $0.75 cents = NZ$1.00) exchange rate is asked for the end of the next quarter as well as for one year out.

Growth

Expectations of the measure of real domestic economic activity are collected for the annual average percentage change in the real GDP production one and two years out. Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter of the seasonally adjusted quarterly percentage change in real production based GDP as reported by Statistics New Zealand were collected but have been discontinued in June 2017.

Labour market

Expectations about the change in average hourly earnings (private sector, ordinary time) as reported in Statistics New Zealand's Quarterly Employment Survey. This is a commonly used measure of private sector salary and wage movements. The expected annual percentage change for the coming year and the next year is collected.

Expectations of the unemployment rate as measured by Statistics New Zealand's Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS). The official HLFS measure is based on international Labour Organisation Standards and is the only measure of the unemployment rate in New Zealand recognised as being internationally comparable. Individuals are designated under this definition, as being unemployed only if they are actively seeking work and are available to start work.

Housing prices

Expectations of the annual percentage change in the Quotable Value Quarterly House price Index for one and two years out are collected (from September 2017). The QV Quarterly House Price Index measures the movement in house prices for local council areas throughout New Zealand, providing an indicator of capital growth.