35 years of flexible inflation targeting - challenges and opportunities
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is organising a research conference that aims to understand the challenges to flexible inflation targeting and the opportunities to polish it further in the post-pandemic world.
About the conference
Date: 6 and 7 March 2025
Location: Wellington
Persistently high inflation through the 1980s motivated a historical policy initiative in New Zealand. In March 1990, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Te Pūtea Matua was tasked with bringing inflation down to a range of 0 to 2%, becoming the first central bank to have a specified inflation target in the monetary policy mandate. Many central banks across the world soon followed New Zealand’s lead and inflation was successfully brought under control, remaining anchored around targeted levels for the next 3 decades.
The COVID-19 pandemic saw acute disruption to supply chains, adverse geopolitical events, and the return of high inflation, prompting renewed discussions on central bank targets and inflation-targeting strategies.
Against this backdrop, 35 years after the inception of the inflation-targeting framework, we will host a research conference that aims to understand the challenges to flexible inflation targeting and the opportunities to polish it further in the post-pandemic world.
Watch a recording of the conference
Conference programme
We'll add the links to papers and presentation slides to the conference programme agenda below, at the start of each day.
Video recordings of each presentation will be available on YouTube after the end of the conference.
Day 1: Thursday 6 March
| Time | Agenda | Speaker | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30am to 9am | Registration | ||
| 9am to 9:30am | Mihi Whakatau: A traditional Māori ceremony to mark the commencement of the journey | Led by Anthony Wanakore, Reserve Bank of New Zealand | |
| 9:30am to 9:45am | Welcome and opening remarks | Christian Hawkesby, Acting Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand | |
| 9:45am to 10:45am | Keynote address: On inflation targeting | Ben S. Bernanke, Distinguished Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Chair: Adam Richardson, Reserve Bank of New Zealand |
|
| 10:45am to 11:15am | Morning tea | ||
| Session 1: The big picture Chair: Adam Richardson, Reserve Bank of New Zealand |
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| 11:15am to 11:50am | Just do IT? An assessment of inflation targeting in a global comparative case study
Presentation slides |
Roberto Duncan, Ohio University; Enrique Martínez García, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Patricia Toledo, Ohio University. | |
| 11:55am to 12:35pm | Central bank reviews Presentation slides |
Renee Fry-McKibbin, Australian National University; Hans Genberg, Asia School of Business; Özer Karagedikli, Asia School of Business; Warwick McKibbin, Australian National University; Tara Sinclair, George Washington University | |
| 12:35pm to 1:30pm | Lunch |
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Session 2: The monetary policy stance Chair: Marea Sing, Reserve Bank of New Zealand |
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| 1.30pm to 2:10pm | Targeted Taylor rules: some evidence and theory Presentation slides |
Boris Hofmann, Bank for International Settlements; Cristina Manea, Bank for International Settlements; Benoit Mojon, Bank for International Settlements. | |
| 2:10pm to 2:50pm | How important is global r-star for open economies? Presentation slides |
James Morley, University of Sydney; Benjamin Wong, Monash University | |
| 2:50pm to 3:20pm | Afternoon tea |
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| Session 3: Survey evidence Chair: Rebecca Williams, Reserve Bank of New Zealand |
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| 3:20pm to 4pm | What flattens the supply curve? Presentation slides |
Edvin Ahlander, Stockholm University; Mathias Klein, Sveriges Riksbank; Evi Pappa, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. | |
| 4pm to 4:40pm | Low pass-through from inflation expectations to income growth expectations: why people dislike inflation Presentation slides |
Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; John Leer, Morning Consult; Mathieu Pedemonte, Inter-American Development Bank; Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University. | |
| 4:40pm to 5:20pm | How do households form inflation and wage expectations? Presentation slides |
Anthony Brassil; Yahdullah Haidari; Jonathan Hambur; Gulnara Nolan and Callum Ryan, Reserve Bank of Australia | |
Day 2: Friday 7 March
Links to Session 5 papers are not available currently and will be uploaded at a later date. Presentations will be by livestream only.
| Time | Agenda | Speaker | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9am | Welcome | Adam Richardson, Reserve Bank of New Zealand | |
| 9:05am to 9:15am | Opening remarks
|
Karen Silk, Assistant Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand | |
| 9:15am to 10:15am | Keynote address: Holding anchor in turbulent waters | Catherine L. Mann, External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, Professor at Alliance Manchester Business School and Brandeis University. | |
| 10:15am to 10:45am | Morning tea | ||
| Session 4: Lessons from theory Chair: Ross Kendall, Reserve Bank of New Zealand |
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| 10:45am to 11:25am | Monetary policy as insurance Presentation slides |
Stefano Eusepi, Brown University; Christopher G. Gibbs, University of Sydney; Bruce Preston, University of New South Wales Business School. | |
| 11:25am to 12:05pm | Should monetary and fiscal policy pull in the same direction? Presentation slides |
Drago Bergholt, Norges Bank; Øistein Røisland, Norges Bank; Tommy Sveen, BI Norwegian Business School; Ragnar Torvik, Norwegian University of Science and Technology. | |
| 12:05pm to 1pm | Lunch |
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Session 5: The RBNZ session Chair: Chris Bloor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand |
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| 1pm to 1:40pm | Evaluating the drivers of New Zealand's natural interest rate using an overlapping generations model Presentation slides |
Andrew Coleman, Reserve Bank of New Zealand; Robert Kirkby, Victoria University of Wellington; Trent Lockyer, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. | |
| 1:40pm to 2:20pm | Assessing monetary-fiscal interactions using a Regime-Switching Bayesian Local Projection model Presentation slides |
Naveed Javed, Reserve Bank of New Zealand; James Morley, University of Sydney. | |
| 2:20pm to 3pm | Simulating the effects of large scale asset purchases in New Zealand Presentation slides |
Karsten Chipeniuk, Reserve Bank of New Zealand; Elvis Ludvich, Reserve Bank of New Zealand; Melanie Quigg, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. | |
| 3pm to 3:30pm | Afternoon tea |
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| Session 6: Panel discussion Moderator: Calista Cheung, Reserve Bank of New Zealand |
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| 3:30pm to 4:30pm | What does a world with increasing supply shocks mean for the conduct of monetary policy? | Ole Christian Bech-Moen, Norges Bank Paul Conway, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Sarah Hunter, Reserve Bank of Australia Jing Yang, Bank of Canada |
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| 4:30pm to 4:45pm | Closing remarks | Paul Conway, Reserve Bank of New Zealand | |