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Tara-ā-Umanga Business expectations survey: Information for survey participants

What you need to know about being part of Tara-ā-Umanga Business expectations survey.

A survey of national significance

Tara-ā-Umanga Business Expectations Survey is a representative survey of national significance. We use the survey results to understand the economic outlook held by key decision makers. 

The survey data are used to create summary statistics that are a valuable information resource for the Monetary Policy Committee to inform appropriate settings for monetary policy. 

Sound monetary policy, well-informed by high quality data, is good for everyone in Aotearoa New Zealand by avoiding big swings in economic activity and supporting price stability. 

Watch Chief Economist, Paul Conway, explain the importance of the survey

Kia ora I’m Paul Conway, Chief Economist at Te Pūtea Matua - the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. I’m here with my colleague Matt Haigh, Director of Data, Statistics and Analytics, and we are going to explain why expectations matter and how we are improving our measurement of business expectations. in the New Zealand economy.
 
So why do inflation expectations matter for the Reserve Bank?
 
Well, first of all, knowing what people think will happen to inflation in the future is important to us for achieving our objective of low and stable inflation. Because if workers, businesses and other decision makers think that inflation will be within our target, which is between 1-3% in future, they will be less likely to put up prices or make overly large wage claims now.
 
Households would also be less willing to accept large price increases and therefore more likely to shop around, which would make it harder for businesses to increase prices.
 
So sound monetary policy informed by high quality data such as for inflation expectations helps us avoid big swings in economic activity and supports price stability. This is good for everyone in Aotearoa New Zealand.
 
So why survey the business community about their economic expectations? We already have really good information on inflation expectations for many groups in society.
 
Our Tara-ā-Whare - household survey of expectations, provides rich quarterly insights from around 1000 households of consumers, homeowners, renters and wage earners.
 
Business protections are critically important too, as they may affect investment, hiring, wage and price setting decisions.
 
Our long running survey of expectations has been providing valuable views from a small but expert group of forecasters, economists and industry leaders since 1987.
 
Now we're looking to improve our understanding further with a more comprehensive view from the wider business world with a new survey of around 400 representative companies to really learn what businesses are thinking.
 
Visit our website to have your say on the survey.

Our investment in an industry-wide survey will also provide evidence to support decision-making across many aspects of our work, beyond monetary policy.

Being chosen for participation

We value the views of all our survey participants and appreciate their time and commitment to help support the wider economy. Survey responses are the only way to understand, first-hand, the current economic outlook of businesses.

Why take part

If your business is selected, we have carefully chosen you to represent the views of your industry and businesses of a similar size.

Businesses are chosen at random from Stats NZ’s Statistical Business Register, using a stratified random sample. This statistical approach allows us to confidently estimate key results for all New Zealand businesses.

Participation in the survey is voluntary. You can withdraw at any time.

Who is conducting the survey

Research New Zealand – Rangahau Aotearoa is carrying out the survey on behalf of Te Pūtea Matua Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Survey length and timing

The survey is designed to take less than 10 minutes to complete.

Following our pilot survey in April 2024 we plan to conduct the survey four times a year, in late– January, April, July, and October.

Confidentiality

Respondent information will be held securely, only used for statistical purposes, and always kept confidential. Results will be published in aggregate form only for groups of businesses. Individual businesses will not be identified in any publication.

Further information

If you have any questions or would like to know more, please contact us at: [email protected]

Pilot survey and public consultation

The April 2024 survey is a pilot with a smaller sample of businesses. This will test our processes before scaling up the survey.

Alongside the pilot we are running a public consultation on the survey design and questionnaire.