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Economic projections explained

Each quarterly Monetary Policy Statement we release includes our projections (or forecasts) for the future. These forecasts paint a picture of where our economists think New Zealand's economy, labour market, inflation and interest rates are heading over the next few years.

What goes into creating our forecasting picture

  • Information from regular discussions with a variety of businesses across New Zealand
  • Economic and financial data
  • Data from our economic modelling, combined with the judgement and experience of our economists
  • Current news and developments at home and around the world
  • Information from our other departments and other government agencies.

The projections help explain what we think is happening within New Zealand's economy and the economic risks that may be ahead. They provide policymakers, businesses and households with an economic sketch of the forces likely to shape the future economic environment.

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