Housing and employment (H2)

Purpose of collection

The primary purpose of collecting the data shown on the H2 table is to enable the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to monitor the New Zealand public’s expectations around rent/mortgage serviceability and employment security.

Survey methodology

Periodicity

The data is collected quarterly, and goes into field after the CPI inflation figures have been released by Stats NZ.

Survey population and sample design

Data is sourced from the RBNZ’s Tara-ā-Whare Household Expectations survey. This data is collected by the research provider, Research NZ on behalf of the Reserve Bank.

The target population is the New Zealand usually resident population aged 18+.

The survey population is the New Zealand usually resident population aged 18+ who are part of the Dynata panel. Dynata is the largest online survey panel provider in Australasia and is used as the sample frame for this survey.

New Zealand residents who aren’t on the Dynata panel are out of scope, and are not part of the survey population.

A large number of Dynata panellists who meet the survey population definition are randomly selected to participate in the online survey. They are invited to participate via an invitation email which includes a unique survey link (which means an individual can only complete the survey once). The survey is set up with quotas on gender, age, ethnicity and region, and a blended sample is used to over-sample Māori and Pacific to ensure a representative response (reflecting New Zealand’s make up). As specific quotas fill up, there is a move to target another wave of invitations to groups that have not yet responded as quickly. The total achieved sample is approximately n=1,000 respondents every quarter.

The survey data is weighted using RIM weighting (Random Iterative Method) on age, gender, region and ethnicity from Stats NZ Census data to ensure the data is representative of the New Zealand population.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) receives anonymised unit record data from the research provider, which are then aggregated to produce summary statistics.

Timeliness

Data is released around the end of the second month of the reference quarter.

Access by the public

Statistics release calendar

The Statistics release calendar provides a long-term plan of scheduled releases. It is updated and released on the first working day of the month.

View the Statistics release calendar

Data for this table is sourced from the RBNZ’s Tara-ā-Whare - Household Expectations Survey. The word “Tara” is derived from Pakitara, or the walls, and “Whare” means a house. Tara-ā-Whare is also used to describe going to door to door, to ask questions. This survey is run by Research NZ on behalf of the Reserve Bank.

Survey questions and series calculations

The questions asked and the series calculations are outlined below.

The following questions are a subset of all the questions respondents are asked in the survey and represent only those questions that are relevant to the H2 table. All questions are asked on a quarterly basis.

Note:

Some of the questions are asked from a subset of the total sample and will result in a smaller sample size and increased margin or errors. For example, some of the questions are only asked of those who are employed or who pay rent or a mortgage.

For some of the series, there is a substantial difference between the published mean and median values as the mean data is skewed by a relatively small number of highly positive responses. These series were introduced in March 2022 and are currently not treated for outliers. We will review our analysis methodology once we have collected more data on these series and decide whether an outlier removal process is appropriate.

Percentage chance of not making a mortgage/rent payment in the next 3 months

1. Please click on this sliding scale to tell us what is the percentage chance you will be unable to make a [either rent/mortgage] payment in the next three months? A good guess will do.(asked of those who rent or have a mortgage)

If you don’t think you’ll miss a payment, click on 0%. (numeric answer given)

Note: This question is only asked of those who rent or have a mortgage. The mean and median are calculated separately for those who are paying a mortgage, and those who are paying rent. The answers for this question range from 0 to 100. Where 0 means 0% chance of missing a rent/mortgage payment and 100 means 100% chance of missing rent/mortgage payment.

The median percentage chance of not making a mortgage or rent payment in the next 3 months estimate is calculated by taking the weighted median of the responses given in question 1.

The mean percentage chance of not making a mortgage or rent payment in the next 3 months estimate is calculated by taking the weighted average of the responses given in question 1.

Housing investment behaviour

2. Thinking about the last 12 months, which of these apply to you, if any? Did you…?

Please select as many options as apply.

• Sell the house you were living in for a more expensive one
• Sell the house you were living in for a less expensive one
• Buy your first home to live in
• Buy an investment property
• Sell an investment property
• None of the above apply to me
• Don’t know

Each category is represented as a separate series in the table. The estimate for each category in question 2 is a weighted percentage. This is calculated by taking the weighted number of respondents who selected a certain value and dividing this by the weighted total of respondents who answered this question.

Note: Percentages do not add to 100% as this is a multiple select question.

Expected change in earnings

3. Now thinking ahead to the next 12 months. Let’s assume that you are working in the same (main) job as you are now, at the same place, and you’re working the same number of hours. (asked of those who are currently employed)

What do you expect will happen to your earnings on this job in 12 months’ time, before taxes and other deductions? Will they have …

• Increased
• Be about the same
• Decreased
• Would rather not say

4. Please use this sliding scale to tell us by how much you expect your earnings to have increased/decreased in 12 months’ time. A good guess will do. (asked of those who are currently employed) (numeric answer given)

Note: These questions are only asked of those who are currently employed. The answers for question 4 can range from (-100 to 100), where -100 means a person expects a total loss of earnings and 100 means a person expects a 100 percent increase in their earnings over the next 12 months.

The median expected change in earnings is calculated by taking the weighted median of the responses given in question 4.

The mean expected change in earnings is calculated by taking the weighted average of the responses given in question 4.

Each category is represented as a separate series in the table. The estimate for each category in question 4 is a weighted percentage. This is calculated by taking the weighted number of respondents who selected a given category and dividing this by the weighted total of respondents who answered this question.

Percentage chance of losing job in next 12 months

5. Please use this sliding scale to tell us what you feel the chances are that you might lose your (main) job in the next 12 months. A good guess will do. If you think there is no chance that you’ll lose your job, click on 0%. (asked of those who are currently employed) (numeric answer given)

Note: This question is only asked of those who are currently employed. The answers for this question range from 0 to 100. Where 0 means 0 percent or no chance of losing their (main) job and 100 means 100 percent chance of losing their (main) job.

The median percentage chance of losing job in next 12 months is calculated by taking the middle number of the sorted weighted responses given in question 5.

The mean percentage chance of losing job in next 12 months is calculated by taking the weighted average of the responses given in question 5.

Percentage chance of finding a new job in the next 3 months (if current job lost)

6. Let’s assume that you lost your job in this coming month. Please use the sliding scale to tell us what you think your chances are of finding a new job in the next three months, that you accept, given the type of work and pay? A good guess will do.

If you think there is no chance that you’ll find a job, click on 0%. (asked of those currently employed) (numeric answer given)

Note: This question is only asked of those who are currently employed. The answers for this question range from 0 to 100. Where 0 means 0 percent chance or no chance of finding a new job in the next three months and 100 means 100 percent chance of finding a new job in the next three months.

The median percentage chance of finding a new job in the next 3 months is calculated by finding the middle number of the sorted weighted responses given in question 6.

The mean percentage chance of finding a new job in the next 3 months is calculated by taking the weighted average of the responses given in question 6.

Symbols and conventions for summary table

General notes

• Individual figures may not sum to the totals due to rounding
• Percentage changes are calculated on unrounded numbers
• You are free to copy, distribute and adapt these statistics subject to the conditions listed on our copyright page.