Household inflation expectations - M13

The data: coverage, periodicity, and timeliness

Coverage characteristics

The data until September 2008 in this table is sourced from ACNielsen's Marketscope telephone omnibus survey conducted in the second month of the reference quarter.

From December 2008 quarter data is sourced from UMR Research's nation-wide telephone omnibus survey.

The data includes Median current inflation, Mean current inflation, Net percent expecting higher inflation, Median and Mean expected inflation in 12 months time.

Periodicity

Quarterly

Timeliness

Data is released around the end of the second month of the reference quarter.

Access by the public

Statistics release calendar

The Statistics Release Calendar provides a long-term plan of scheduled releases. It is updated and released on the first working day of the month.

View the Statistics Release Calendar.

Integrity

Dissemination of terms and conditions under which official statistics are produced, including confidentiality of individual responses

On behalf of the Bank, the survey company asks householders three questions relating to their inflation perceptions/expectations.

Provision of information about revisions and advance notice of major changes in methodology

Data is not revised.

A series break occurs at the December 2008 quarter, due to a change in the sample. The UMR Research sample is 750, the ACNielsen sample is 1000. The UMR survey excludes the 15-17 age group, which is included in ACNielsen's survey.

Quality

Dissemination of documentation on methodology and sources used in preparing statistics

Interviews are carried out by telephone, with one person per household. Telephone numbers are randomly generated within known Telecom ranges. Individual respondent answers are weighted so as to replicate the demographic characteristics of a fully national sample.

Dissemination of statistics that support statistical cross-checks and provide assurance of reasonableness

The Reserve Bank receives a confidential report based on the aggregated responses. Key survey results are published on the RBNZ website.

The Reserve Bank contracts a survey company to ask respondents questions relating to their expectations of inflation and house prices.

The data from 1995 through to September 2008 is sourced from ACNielsen's Marketscope telephone survey of 1000 people aged 15 years and over. From December 2008 the survey is sourced from UMR Research's nationwide omnibus telephone survey of 750 people aged 18 years and over.

We are satisfied that the effect of the sample differences on the survey results is minor, but the following two factors should be kept in mind when interpreting movements in figures between the December 2008/March 2009 results and previous surveys. (1) The smaller sample implies a slightly higher margin of error in the survey results (±3.6% at the 95% confidence level). (2) Although a relatively small subgroup, the 15-17 age group has tended to have higher expectations than the full sample mean. However, our tests have shown the exclusion of this group has negligible impact on the figures.

A. Inflation

Respondents are first asked:

"What is your understanding of the term inflation?"

If respondents are able to provide an answer, they are then asked:

1. Current inflation perceptions:

"Based on your own opinions and what you've seen and heard, what do you think the inflation figure is now? "

2. Expected change in short term inflation:

"In 12 months time, do you expect the inflation figure to be higher, lower or the same?"
(NB. Net per cent expecting higher inflation refers to the percentage expecting higher inflation, minus the percentage expecting lower inflation.)

3. Short-term expected inflation:

"What do you think the actual figure will be in 12 months time?"

4. Medium-term expected inflation:

"What do you think the actual figure will be in five years time?"

B. House price inflation

5. Expected short-term change:

"In one year's time do you think house prices overall will have increased, decreased or stayed the same compared to now?"

6. Expected short-term house price inflation:

"By what percentage do you think they will have increased or decreased?"