Senior Manager, Economics
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Adam is a Senior Manager in the Economics Department. He joined the Bank in 2007. He has spent time in a number of roles across the Economics and Financial Markets Departments and has been a member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. He also spent a year working in Sydney as an economist for an international bank.
Adam has an Honours degree in Economics from the University of Otago and is a CFA charterholder.
Current research interests
- Monetary policy transmission
- Machine learning applications
- Macro modelling
Recent publications
- Richardson, A, Mulder, T and Vehbi, T (2021) “Nowcasting GDP using machine-learning algorithms: A real-time assessment” International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 37, Issue 2, 941-948
- Richardson, A, Culling, J, Jacob, P, Truong, E and Vehbi, T (2019) “Have the effects of monetary policy on inflation and economic activity in New Zealand changed over time?” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, August 2019, AN2019/10
- Richardson, A, Drought, S and Perry, R (2018) “Aspects of implementing unconventional monetary policy in New Zealand” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, May 2018, Vol. 81, No. 4
- Richardson, A and Wadsworth, A (2017) “A factor model of commodity price co-movements: An application to New Zealand export prices” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, November 2017, AN2017/06
- Richardson, A (2016) “Behind the scenes of an OCR decision in New Zealand” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, July 2016, Vol. 79, No. 11
- Richardson, A, Lewis, M and McDermott, J (2016) “Inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, March 2016, Vol 79, No 4
- Richardson, A, Ford, D and Kendall, E (2015) “Evaluating monetary policy”, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, November 2015, Vol. 78, No. 7
- Richardson, A and Williams, R (2015) “Estimating New Zealand’s neutral interest rate”, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, September 2015, AN 2015/0
Date joined: 2014
Amber is an advisor in the Money and Cash Policy team. She joined the Reserve Bank in 2014 and has worked across banking supervision, payments oversight, monetary policy, and money and cash. In 2019, she was seconded to the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructure secretariat at the Bank for International Settlements for one year. She holds a BA (Hons) in Economics and a BCom in International Business from the University of Otago.
Current research interests
- Central Bank Digital Currency
- Innovation in digital currencies
- Payments
- Stewardship of money and cash.
Publications
- Bech, M, Hancock, J, Rice, T and A Wadsworth (2020) ,‘On the future of securities settlement’, BIS Quarterly Review, March 2020
- Price G and Wadsworth A (2019), 'Effective monetary policy committee deliberation in New Zealand', Bulletin, Vol 82, No 1.
- Wadsworth A (2018), 'The pros and cons of issuing a central bank digital currency', Bulletin, Vol 81, No 7.
- Wadsworth A (2018), 'Decrypting the role of distributed ledger technology in payments processes', Bulletin, Vol 81, No 5.
- Wadsworth A (2018), 'What is digital currency?' Bulletin, Vol 81, No 3.
Research and Analytics Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Andrew is an Adviser in the Research and Analytics team in the Economics Department. He conducts research on a wide range of macroeconomic topics relevant to the New Zealand economy including housing, inflation, taxation, and retirement policy, using a range of theoretical and empirical modelling strategies. He previously worked at the University of Otago and the University of Michigan, where he researched how transport systems affected commodity prices and interest rates during the Gold Standard era.
Current research interests
- Inflation and relative price movements
- Inflation, taxation, and housing markets
- Preferences over inflation and unemployment outcomes
- Optimal inflation targets
Recent publications
- Coleman, A (2023) “Housing quality improvement, property market dynamics, and sustainable house prices” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper, April 2023, DP2023-01
- Coleman, A and Zheng, G (2020) “Job-to-job transitions and the regional job ladder” New Zealand Productivity Commission, March 2020, 2020/01
- Coleman, A; Au, J and Sullivan, T (2019) “A practical approach to well-being-based policy development: what do New Zealanders want from their retirement income policies?” Agenda 26 23-47.
- Coleman, A (2019) “Tax, Credit Constraints, and the Big Costs of Small Inflation” Australian Economic Papers, January 2019, Vol 58, Issue 2, pages 130 – 149
- Coleman, A (2012) “Uncovering uncovered interest parity during the classical gold standard era, 1888-1905” North American Journal of Economics and Finance, January 2012, Vol 23, pages 20–37
- Coleman, A (2009) “Storage, slow transport and the law of one price: theory with evidence from nineteenth century U.S. corn markets” Review of Economics and Statistics, May 2009, 91(2) 332-350
Policy Analysis Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Anna is an Adviser in the Policy Analysis team in the Economics Department. In this role, she leads the speech programme for the Economics Department and contributes to strategic advice.
Anna joined the Reserve Bank in late 2021 as an Adviser in the Policy Research and Development team. Prior to this, she previously worked in forecasting, modelling and research, and macroeconomic, fiscal and housing policy at the New Zealand Treasury and Otago University.
She has a Master of Commerce majoring in Economics from the Victoria University of Wellington - Te Herenga Waka.
Current research interests
- Central Bank communication
- Fiscal policy
- Monetary policy strategy
Recent publications
- Hamer-Adams, A., & Wong, M. (2018). Quantifying Fiscal Multipliers in New Zealand: the Evidence from SVAR Models. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note Series, AN2018/5, ISSN 2230‐5505.
- Howden-Chapman, P., Hamer-Adams, A., Randal, E., Chapman, R., & Salmon, G. (2015). Survey of sentiment about cities. In L. Early, P. Howden-Chapman & M. Russell (Eds.), Drivers of urban change. Wellington, New Zealand: Steele Roberts Aotearoa.
- Howden-Chapman, P., O'Sullivan, K., Bierre, S., Chisholm, E., Hamer-Adams, A., Ombler, J., & Amore, K. (2015). What effect will the 2015 budget have on housing? Policy Quarterly, 11(3), 13-19.
Forecasting Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Brandon is a Senior Analyst in the Forecasting team in the Economics Department. Recently, he has worked on additional monetary policy tools, modelling exchange rates, banking sector transmission and forecasting various parts of the economy. He joined in the Bank in 2020 and has worked across prudential regulation, monetary policy, and financial market analysis. He holds a Master of Economics degree and a Bachelor of Science majoring in mathematics and economics from the University of Otago.
Current research interests
- Macroeconomic forecasting
- Household savings, wealth and consumption
- Migration and the labour market
- Additional monetary policy tools
Recent publications
- Kengmana, B (2021) “RAMPed up; RBNZ’s Additional Monetary Policy toolkit” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Vol 84, No.1
Policy Analysis Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Chris is the Manager of the Policy Analysis team in the Economics Department.
Chris has been at the Reserve Bank since 2005 and has worked in several roles during this time. From 2009-2020 he worked in the financial stability area of the Reserve Bank where he was instrumental in the design and implementation of loan to value ratio restrictions and led the development of the bank stress testing programme and production of the Financial Stability Report.
Chris rejoined the Economics department in late 2020, and in his current role is responsible for maintaining the frameworks under which monetary policy operates and for providing advice on monetary policy strategy to the Monetary Policy Committee. With his team, he led the recent review of the MPC’s Remit and Charter.
Current policy interests
- Monetary policy strategy
- Coordination of monetary policy with fiscal and financial stability policy
Recent publications
- Supporting New Zealand's economic stability - Toitu te Ohanga
- Bloor, C; Knowles, K; Nicholls, K (2020) “Outcomes from a COVID-19 stress test of New Zealand banks” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, September 2020, Vol. 83, No 3
Date joined: 2008
Chris is the Manager of the System Monitoring & Analysis team which is part of the Financial Stability Group at the Reserve Bank. A key role for his team is monitoring risks to the financial system and producing our Financial Stability Reports. He is also involved with the cross-government Housing technical working group. Previously, Chris spent a decade in the Economics department, including 3 years as Manager of the Forecasting team. He has researched the effects of migration and macroprudential policies, looked at the drivers of the New Zealand dollar and developed national house price measures, among other things. Chris spent six months in 2014 at the Bank for International Settlements regional office in Hong Kong.
Current research interests
- risks to the NZ financial system
- the housing market, mortgage lending and macroprudential policy
- macroeconomic modelling.
Publications
- McDonald C (2017), 'Does past inflation predict the future?' Analytical Note, AN2017/04.
- McDonald C, Thamotheram C, Vahey S and Wakerly E (2016), 'Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target', Discussion paper, DP2016/10.
- McDonald C and J Armstrong (2016), 'Why the drivers of migration matter for the labour market', Analytical Note, AN2016/02.
- McDonald C, G Kamber, N Sander and K Theodoridis (2015), 'A Structural model for policy analysis and forecasting: NZSIM', Discussion paper, DP2015/05.
- McDonald C (2015), 'When is macroprudential policy effective?' Discussion paper, DP2015/06.
Research and Analytics Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Chris is a Senior Adviser in the Research and Analytics team in the Economics Department.
Dr. Christopher Ball is a labour economist and a leading researcher. His research interests include the impacts of job transitions and on-the-job search, applying machine learning and nowcasting techniques to labour market data, and developing high-frequency price and wage indices.
Recent publications
- Developing and publishing the Employment Stocks and Flows Series (ESFS) with Stats NZ: https://www.stats.govt.nz/experimental/employment-stocks-and-flows-series/
- Developing the New Zealand Activity Index and Regional Activity Index with Treasury and Stats NZ: https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/new-zealand-activity-index and https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-and-commentary/regional-activity-indices
- Ball, C, Kido, Y, Kothari, S, Nolan, G and Zheng, G (2022) “What Matters for Job Finding and Separation in the long-run?” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper, September 2022, DP2022-02
- Ball, C, Kido, Y, Kothari, S, Nolan, G and Zheng, G (2022) “What Matters for Job Finding and Separation in the long-run?” IMF Working Paper, September 2022, Vol 2022, Issue 172, page 29
- Ball, C, Richardson, A and Zheng, G (2022) “Ethnic variations in firm financing” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, August 2022, AN2022/11
Date joined: 2015
Evelyn is an adviser in the Central Banking Analytics team. She has a Masters degree in Economics from the University of Waikato.
Previous teams
- Forecasting
- Banking Oversight.
Current research interests
- structural VAR analysis
- macroeconomic modelling
- monetary policy.
Forecasting Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Gerelmaa is a Senior Economic Analyst in the Forecasting team in the Economics Department. Before joining the RBNZ, she worked for the Bank of Mongolia as an economist. Gerelmaa has a bachelor’s degree in economics and a master’s degree in central banking.
Current research interests
- Macroeconomic modelling
- Monetary policy transmission
Forecasting Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
John is an Adviser in the Forecasting team in the Economics Department. John is a CFA charterholder and has a BCom (Hons) in Finance and a BSc in Applied Mathematics from the University of Auckland. He has worked in a range of core central banking functions, including financial markets and financial stability.
Current research interests
- Macroeconomic forecasting
- Monetary policy transmission
- Housing market dynamics
Recent publications
- Knowles, J, Austin, L and Kerr, L (2023) “Money creation in New Zealand” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, January 2023, Vol.86, No.1
- Knowles, J, Bloor, C and Nicholls, K (2020) “Outcomes of a COVID-19 stress test of New Zealand banks” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, September 2020, Vol.83, No.3
Date joined: February 2021
Current research interests
- complexity and network economics
- innovation economics
Publications
Chadwick M, Dasgupta K and P. Jacob (2022), 'Housing Supply, House Prices, and Monetary Policy', Analytical Note, AN2022/08
Research and Analytics Team
Email: Karsten [email protected]
Biography
Karsten is an Adviser in the Research and Analytics team in the Economics Department. Karsten joined the Reserve Bank in July 2017. Prior to this, he completed his PhD in economics from Indiana University in the United States.
Karsten’s main fields of interest include heterogeneous agent macroeconomics, computational economics, and financial time series. While at the Reserve Bank, he has contributed to work on distributional effects of monetary policy in New Zealand, interaction between monetary and fiscal policies, and understanding the macroeconomic consequences of climate change and the transition to a net zero economy. He has published in international journals including the European Economic Review, the Journal of Macroeconomics, and Computational Economics.
Previously Karsten completed a PhD in mathematics at the University of British Columbia, Canada and worked as a Postdoctoral Scholar at the California Institute of Technology and Indiana University.
Current research interests
- Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomics
- Monetary Fiscal Interactions
- Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change
Recent publications
- Chipeniuk, K, Katz, N and Walker, T (2022) “Households auctioneers, and aggregation” European Economic Review, January 2022, Vol 141.
- Chipeniuk, K and Nolan, G (2022) “Monetary Policy Easing and the Distribution of Wealth in New Zealand” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, January 2022, AN2022/01.
- Chipeniuk, K and Walker, T (2021) “Forward inflation expectations: Evidence from inflation caps and floors” Journal of Macroeconomics, December 2021, Vol 70.
Policy Analysis team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Lewis is a Senior Adviser in the Policy Analysis team in the Economics Department. Lewis joined what is now the Bank’s Financial System Policy and Analysis (FSPA) department in 2014.
in FSPA, Lewis worked on a range of financial policy and financial stability matters. While in Economics, Lewis contributed to assessing the monetary policy implications of economic developments during the initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic. More recently, in Policy Analysis, Lewis’ primary interests have been in central bank balance sheets and financing arrangements.
Lewis has an Honours degree in Economics from the University of Canterbury.
Current research interests
- Central bank balance sheets and financing arrangements
Recent publications
- Kerr, L, Knowles, J and Austin, L (2023) “Money Creation in New Zealand” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, January 2023, Vol. 86, No. 1
- Kerr, L (2018) “Introducing the Credit Conditions Survey” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, November 2018, Vol. 81, No. 11
Research and Analytics Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Lucas is a Senior Economic Analyst in the Research and Analytics team in the Economics Department. Lucas is a microdata (IDI/LBD) researcher with a wealth of public sector experience. Lucas holds a MCom in Economics and BSc (hons) in Statistics.
Current research interests
- Labour market
- Firm dynamics
- Productivity
- Machine learning
- Central Bank Digital Currency
Recent publications
- Chen, L (2023) “Do performance metrics of self-identifying Māori firms differ from non-Māori firms?”
Research and Analytics Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Lydia is a Senior Economic Analyst in the Research and Analytics team in the Economics Department.
Lydia joined as a graduate in 2020, first working in the Financial Stability Department primarily on financial market infrastructures regulation and overseas bank branch policy. Since moving to the Economics Department, Lydia has worked on a variety of economic policy and research work. To date, she has also been extensively involved in New Zealand’s future of payments work as part of the Reserve Bank’s Future of Money project.
Lydia holds a Masters degree in economics and finance from the University of Canterbury.
Current research interests
- Supply and demand drivers of inflation
- Future of payments in New Zealand
Recent publications
- Dudson, L; Gillies, L and Wadsworth, A (2022) “New Zealand’s Payment Landscape: A Primer” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, November 2022, Vol, 85, No. 3
Modelling Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Marea is Acting Manager of the Modelling team in the Economics Department. She has an MPhil in Economics from the University of Oxford, and a MIT in Big Data Science from the University of Pretoria. She was previously employed by the South African Reserve Bank and has previous central banking experience in forecasting and macroprudential analysis.
Current research interests
- Machine-learning and deep-learning
- Microdata
- Distributional impacts of macroeconomic policy
- Structural and empirical macroeconomic modelling
Recent publications
- Sing, M and Zheng, G (2023) “Sectoral Reallocation and Income Growth in the Labour Market During the COVID-19 Pandemic” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes, May 2023, AN2023-01
- Sing, M and Bohm, T (2022) “Evaluating the Reserve Bank’s Forecasting Performance” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Vol. 85, No. 4
- Sing, M and Chatterjee, S (2021) “Measuring systemic risk in South African banks” South African Reserve Bank Working Paper Series, April 2021, WP/21/04
- Sing, M, Nesengani, N and Steinbach, R (2017) “Animal spirits and the hangover in private sector investment” South African Reserve Bank Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes, January 2017, OBEN/2017/03
Forecasting Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Matthew is a Senior Analyst in the Forecasting team in the Economics Department. Previously he spent time in the Market Intelligence and Analysis and Resilience Policy teams. He has a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) degree in Economics from the University of Auckland.
Current research interests
- Macroeconomic modelling
- Spillovers of international shocks
- International finance and trade
Policy Analysis Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Matthew Brunton is an Adviser in the Policy Analysis team in the Economics Department. He joined the Reserve Bank in 2018 and has worked across financial policy and monetary policy teams. He is involved in work relating to the housing market and monetary policy frameworks. Matthew holds a BCom (Hons) in Economics from the University of Auckland.
Current research interests
- Housing market
- Monetary policy strategy and frameworks
Recent publications
- Brunton, M and Jacob, P (2022) “New Zealand House Prices and the Decline in Longer-Term Financing Costs” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes, June 2022, AN2022/10
- Brunton, M (2021) “Measures for Assessing the Sustainability of House Prices in New Zealand” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes, November 2021, AN2021/08
Forecasting Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Maui is a Senior Analyst in the Forecasting team in the Economics Department. Maui has a BCom in Economics and Finance from the University of Canterbury, and an MSc in Economic and Social Sciences from Bocconi University.
Current research interests
- Applied macroeconomics
- Labour market and wage dynamics
Forecasting Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Nele is an Adviser in the Forecasting team in the Economics Department. She started at the RBNZ in 2021 and before joining the Economics department, Nele worked in the Financial Stability Group in the Financial Market Infrastructures team. Prior to that she has worked as a senior consultant in risk advisory at Deloitte.
Nele holds a BSc and MSc in Economics from the Christian-Albrecht University of Kiel and University of Hamburg (Germany).
Current research interests
- Implications of behavioural economics on monetary policy
- Macroeconomic forecasting
- Labour markets
Research and Analytics Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Punnoose (alias Reuben) is a Senior Adviser in the Research and Analytics team in the Economics Department.
After five years of university in India, he travelled to the Netherlands to pursue an MSc in Economics from Tilburg University, and then to Belgium for his doctoral degree at Ghent University. Punnoose was also a PhD intern at the National Bank of Belgium in 2008-09. After defending the doctoral dissertation in 2010, Punnoose pursued two years of post-doctoral research at Ghent and at the Chair of International Finance, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne in Switzerland. He moved to Wellington in 2012.
Current research interests
- International Macroeconomics
Publications
- Jacob, P and Brunton, M(2022) “New Zealand house prices and the decline in longer-term financing costs” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, June 2022, AN2022/10
- Jacob, P, Chadwick, M and Dasgupta, Kand P (2022) “Housing supply, house prices and monetary policy” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, June 2022, AN2022/08
- Jacob, P and Fitchett, H (2022) “How do we stack up? The New Zealand housing market in the international context” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, June 2022, AN2022/06
- Jacob, P and Özbilgin, M (2021) “Welfare gains in a small open economy with a dual mandate for monetary policy” CAMA Working Paper, October 2021, Vol 89/2021
- Jacob, P, Bernhard, Sand Culling, J (2020) “Has the Reserve Bank responded differently to upturns and downturns in inflation and economic activity?”, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, September 2020, AN2020/06
- Jacob, P, Culling, J, Richardson, A, Truong, E and Vehbi, T (2019)“Have the effects of monetary policy on inflation and economic activity in New Zealand changed over time?” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, August 2019, AN2019/10
- Jacob, P and Uusküla, L (2019)“Deep habits and exchange rate pass-through” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 105 (August), pp. 67-89
- Jacob, P and Robinson, F (2019) “Suite as! Augmenting the Reserve Bank’s output gap indicator suite” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, June 2019, AN2019/08
- Jacob, P and van Florenstein Mulder, T (2019) “The flattening of the Phillips curve: Rounding up the suspects” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, May 2019, AN2019/06
- Jacob, P and Wadsworth, A (2018)“Estimated policy rules for two monetary regimes: Flexible inflation targeting versus a dual mandate” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, November 2018, AN2018/11
- Jacob, P and Munro, A (2018) “A prudential stable funding requirement and monetary policy in a small open economy” Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 94(C), pp. 89-106
- Jacob, P and Wong, M (2018) “Estimating the NAIRU and the natural rate of unemployment for New Zealand” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, March 2018, AN2018/04
- Jacob, P (2015) “Deep habits, price rigidities and the consumption response to government spending”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 47(2-3), pp. 481-51
- Jacob, P and Peersman, G (2013)“Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model” Journal of International Economics, vol. 90(2), pp. 302-31
Forecasting Team
Email: [email protected]
Biography
Rebecca leads the Forecasting team, which is responsible for advising the Monetary Policy Committee on the current state of the New Zealand economy, the medium-term outlook, and the likely monetary policy settings required to meet the Bank’s inflation and employment objectives. The team is also responsible for producing the Monetary Policy Statement, published four times a year.
Before becoming Manager of the Forecasting team, Rebecca led the Policy Analysis team and was involved in the first phase of the RBNZ Act Review (focused on changes to the monetary policy framework) and preparation of the Monetary Policy Handbook.
Rebecca joined the Bank in 2010 and has a BCom (Hons) in Economics and a BA in History from the University of Canterbury.
Publications
- Williams, R (2017) “Characterising the current economic expansion: 2009 to present day” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, June 2017, Vol 80, No 3
- Williams, R (2017) “Business cycle review: 2008 to present day” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, March 2017, Vol 80, No 2
- Williams, R and Richardson, A (2015) “Estimating New Zealand’s neutral interest rate” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, September 2015, AN2015/05
- Williams, R, Gillmore, D and Groshenny, N (2012) “Matching workers with jobs: how well is the New Zealand labour market doing?” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, December 2012, 75(4)
- Williams, R, Gillmore, D and Groshenny, N “Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note, September 2012, 2012(06)
- Williams, R, Bloor, C and Munro, A (2012) "The macroeconomic effects of a stable funding requirement” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper, August 2012, DP2012/05
- Williams, R (2011) “We’re all in this together: the transmission of international shocks to open economies” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, March 2011, Vol 74, No.1
- Williams, R and Munro, A “Financial sector amplification and credit cycles in New Zealand” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, June 2010, Vol 73, No.2