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Events calendar

Nowcasting with model combination

This December 2008 workshop involved state-of-the-art contributions that examined the role of forecast combination in short-term macroeconomic forecasting.

Published:
Past Event
Thursday, 11 December 2008 to Friday, 12 December 2008
9:00 am - 5:00 pm
Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Programme for 11 December

Morning session

Session chair: Kirdan Lees (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Opening remarks by Alan Bollard, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Forecast comparisons in unstable environments
Presented by: Barbara Rossi (Duke University)
Discussant: Pierre Siklos (Wilfred Laurier University)

Nowcasting UK GDP growth: An evaluation of dynamic factor models use Quasi real-time data
Presented by: Simon Price (Bank of England)
Discussant: Matthew Yiu (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Nowcasting, business cycle dating and the interpretation of new information when real-time data are available
Presented by: Kalvinder Shield (University of Melbourne)
Discussant: Alfred Haug (University of Otago)

Afternoon session

Session chair: Viv Hall (Victoria University of Wellington)

Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand
Presented by: Troy Matheson (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Discussant: Anella Munro (Bank of International Settlements)

Combing forecasts densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities
Presented by: Shaun Vahey (Melbourne Business School)
Discussant: Les Oxley (University of Canterbury)

Predicting local and national house prices
Presented by: Chris Otrok (University of West Virginia)
Discussant: Sandra Eickmeier (Bundesbank and Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Programme for 12 December

Morning session

Session chair: Mico Loretan (Bank of International Settlements)

Improving and evaluating short term forecasts at the Norges bank
Presented by: Leif Anders Thorsrud (Norges Bank)
Discussant: Leni Hunter (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Incorporating conjunctural analysis in structural models
Presented by: Francesca Monti (ECARES)
Discussant: Heather Anderson (Australia National University)

Short run forecasting at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Presented by: John Robertson (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

Afternoon session

Session chair: Shaun Vahey (Melbourne Business School)

Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria
Presented by: Hugo Gerard (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Discussant: Mico Loretan (Bank of International Settlements)

Evaluating density forecasts: Forecast combinations, model mixtures, calibration and sharpness
Presented by: James Mitchell (NIESR)
Discussant: Peter Thomson (Statistics Research Associates)

The calibration of probabilistic economic forecasts
Presented by: Simon van Norden (HEC Montréal, CIRANO and CIREQ)
Discussant: Kirdan Lees (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)