Overview
High house prices and modest income growth create significant tensions and distributional issues across generations. Elevated household debt and high house prices, combined with subdued inflation outcomes, also pose a challenge for both monetary and macroprudential policy.
We invited submissions of theoretical and empirical papers that explored:
- the dynamics of housing markets and household debt
- the implications of housing cycles for the macro economy
- the consequences of those dynamics for monetary and macropudential policy.
Questions of interest might have included:
- What drives residential investment and household mortgage choice?
- How do developments in house prices affect economic inequality?
- How do housing market dynamics influence consumption and saving behaviour?
- How does household debt and/or leverage affect mortgage default risk and financial stability?
- How does household debt influence the transmission of monetary policy?
- What is the optimal mix of monetary, macroprudential and other policies?
- And should distributional considerations influence monetary and macroprudential policymaking
Keynote speakers
Christopher Carroll (Johns Hopkins University)
Greg Kaplan (University of Chicago)
Dirk Krueger (University of Pennsylvania)
Programme
Session 1: Keynote 1
Session chair: Christie Smith (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
The normal science of heterogeneous agents macroeconomics
Presented by: Christopher Carroll (Johns Hopkins University)
- Download the discussion slides (PDF 1.4 MB)
Session 2: Housing markets and macroeconomy
Session chair: Anella Munro (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Housing finance, boom-bust episodes and the macroeconomy
Presented by: Carlos Garriga (Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis)
Discussant: Andrew Coleman (University of Chicago)
- Download the paper (PDF 532 KB)
- Download the presentation slides (PDF 388 KB)
- Download the discussion slides (PPTX 101 KB)
Consumption responses to house price heterogeneity
Presented by: James Graham (New York University)
Discussant: Karsten Chipeniuk (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
- Download the paper (PDF 633 KB)
- Download the presentation slides (PDF 792 KB)
- Download the discussion slides (PPTX 112 KB)
Session 3: Household debt and consumption spending
Session chair: Karsten Chipeniuk (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Household leverage and the housing wealth effect
Presented by: Fang Yao (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Discussant: Carlos Garriga (Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis)
- Download the paper (PDF 1.3 MB)
- Download the presentation slides (PDF 2.2 MB)
- Download the discussion slides (PPTX 271 KB)
The effect of rising household debt on spending in Australia
Presented by: Fiona Price (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Discussant: Selva Baziki (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)
- Paper and slides are not available.
Session 4: Keynote 2
Session chair: Fang Yao (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Intergenerational redistribution in the great recession
Presented by: Dirk Krueger (University of Pennsylvania)
- Download the paper (PDF 622 KB)
- Download the presentation slides (PDF 770 KB)
Session 5: Keynote 3
Session chair: Robert Kirkby (Victoria University of Wellington)
What would you do with $500? Spending responses to gains, losses, news and loans
Presented by: Greg Kaplan (University of Chicago), joint with Andreas Fuster and Basit Zafar
- Download the presentation slides (PDF 3.6 MB)
Session 6: The role of housing and its implications for policies
Session Chair: Punnoose Jacob (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Monetary policy, heterogeneity and the housing channel
Presented by: Aaron Hedlund (University of Missouri)
Discussant: Robert Kirkby (Victoria University of Wellington)
- Download the paper (PDF 460 KB)
- Download the presentation slides (PDF 542 KB)
- Download the discussion slides (PDF 246 KB)
Tax, credit constraints and the big costs of small inflation
Presented by: Andrew Coleman (University of Otago)
Discussant: Aaron Hedlund (University of Missouri)
- Download the paper (PDF 372 KB)
- Download the presentation slides (PPTX 3.3 MB)
- Download the discussion slides (PDF 258 KB)
Session 7: Understand the drivers of housing market
Session chair: Ashley Dunstan (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Temptation, commitment and hand-to-mouth consumers
Presented by: Patrick Moran (University of Oxford)
Discussant: Fang Yao (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
- Download the paper (PDF 522 KB)
- Download the presentation slides (PDF 245 KB)
- Download the discussion slides (PPTX 351 KB)
Negative gearing tax and welfare: A quantitative study for the Australian housing market
Presented by: Yunho Cho (University of Melbourne)
Discussant: Fiona Price (Reserve Bank of Australia)
- Download the paper (PDF 847 KB)
- Download the presentation slides (PDF 537 KB)
Session 8: Credit and mortgage default
Session chair: John McDermott (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
What drives metropolitan house prices in California
Presented by: Lasse Bork (Aalborg University)
Discussant: Kirdan Lees (Sense Partners)
- Download the paper (PDF 3 MB)
- Download the presentation slides (PDF 2.3 MB)
- Download the discussion slides (PPTX 993 KB)
Do loan-to-value caps generate additional general-purpose loans?
Presented by: Selva Baziki (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)
Discussant: Ashley Dunstan (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
- Download the paper (PDF 6.8 MB)
- Download the presentation slides (PDF 4.5 MB)
- Download the discussion slides (PPTX 300 KB)