Latest OCR decision
On Wednesday 26 November, the Monetary Policy Committee agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate to 2.25%.
Economic activity is being supported by low interest rates and high prices for our exports.
The labour market remains weak, but there are signs that it is stabilising.
Inflation is at the top of our target range but will decline next year.
Economic growth has been uneven across industries. There is high demand for meat, fruit, and dairy. This is boosting the incomes of our farmers and growers. However, industries that sell mainly to New Zealanders, like retail and construction, have been struggling.
Lower interest rates are encouraging households to spend more and businesses to invest. Construction of new homes is starting to increase. We expect the economic recovery to broaden as demand increases over time.
The unemployment rate has increased to 5.3% but is likely to stabilise around this level.
Unemployment will decline next year as the economy recovers and businesses hire more workers. There has been a small increase in the number of job ads in recent months. We expect job ads to keep rising as businesses look to take on more workers.
Tradables inflation has increased. This is mostly due to high inflation for food and things like overseas accommodation and streaming services. Petrol prices have also increased in recent months. We expect food price inflation to decline, contributing to a decline in tradables inflation.
Non-tradables inflation has continued to decline. This is despite much higher administered prices, including council rates and electricity. Rents, insurance, and building costs are increasing at a much slower rate than in recent years. Overall non-tradables inflation is back to a normal level.
Inflation is at the top of our 1 to 3% target range, but we expect inflation to decrease back to about 2% next year.