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Central Bank macroeconomic modelling workshop 2015

In December 2015, we hosted the 18th Central Bank macroeconomic modelling workshop. This series of annual workshops aimed to give policymakers and academics the opportunity to discuss issues related to the class of models used for policy analysis.

Past Event
Intercontinental Hotel, 2 Grey Street, Wellington


The 2015 workshop on 'Challenges for Open Economies' focused on the growing real and financial linkages among economies and their implications for policy analysis. Topics of particular interest included:

  • exchange rate determination and impacts
  • the terms of trade and commodity prices
  • international factor mobility
  • policy spillovers
  • the international dimension of inflation dynamics.

Keynote speakers
Frank Smets (European Central Bank)
Warwick McKibbin (Australian National University)

Programme for Monday 7 December

Session 1: Keynote 1

Session chair: John McDermott (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Challenges for macro models used at central banks
Presented by: Frank Smets (European Central Bank)

Session 2: The international dimension of monetary policy

Session chair: Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Melbourne and Melbourne Institute)

Dealing with time-inconsistency: Inflation targeting vs exchange rate targeting
Presented by: Ippei Fujiwara (Keio University)
Discussant: Mariano Kulish (University of New South Wales)

Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?
Presented by: Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul (Bank of International Settlements)
Discussant: Renee McKibbin (Australian National University)

Session 3: International comovement

Session chair: Kulio Carrillo (Bank of Mexico)

Foreign shocks
Presented by: Drago Bergholt (Norges Bank)
Discussant: Güneş Kamber (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Do long term interest rates drive the business cycle in a small economy?
Presented by: Grzegorz Wesolowski (National Bank of Poland)
Discussant: James Yetman (Bank for International Settlements)

Session 4: The global dimension of inflation

Session chair: Alfred Guender (University of Canterbury)

International inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Philips curve: The role of the global output gap
Presented by: Pym Manopimoke (Bank of Thailand)
Discussant: Miles Parker (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Forecasting local inflation with global inflation: When economic theory meets the facts
Presented by: Roberto Duncan (Ohio University)
Discussant: Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Melbourne and Melbourne Institute)

Session 5: Policy spillovers

Session chair: Timothy Kam (Australian National University)

Inflation, financial conditions and non-standard monetary policy in a monetary union: A model-based evaluation
Presented by: Massimiliano Pisani (Bank of Italy)
Discussant: Julio Carrillo (Bank of Mexico)

International spillovers of large-scale asset purchases
Presented by: Serdar Kabaca (Bank of Canada)
Discussant: Drago Bergholt (Norges Bank)

Session 6

Session chair: Christie Smith (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Monetary policy forecast and global indicators
Presented by: Hilde C Bjørnland (BI Norwegian Business School and Norges Bank)
Discussant: James Morley (University of New South Wales)

Programme for Tuesday 8 December

Session 7: Keynote 2

Session chair: Benjamin Wong (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Long term projections and factor shares
Presented by: Warwick McKibbin (Australian National University)

Session 8: Longer run issues

Session Chair: Mariano Kulish (University of New South Wales)

A reliable output gap that reflects policymakers' beliefs
Presented by: Güneş Kamber (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Discussant: Leif Anders Thorsrud (BI Norwegian Business School)

The neutral rate in a small open economy overlapping generations model
Presented by: Jose Dorich (Bank of Canada)
Discussant: Andrew Coleman (University of Otago and New Zealand Treasury)

Session 9: Financial-real economy interaction

Session Chair: Prasanna Gai (University of Auckland)

Systematic risk: A new trade-off for monetary policy?
Presented by: Stefan Laseen (International Monetary Fund)
Discussant: Timothy Kam (Australian National University)

A macroprudential stable funding requirement and monetary policy in a small open economy
Presented by: Punnoose Jacob (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Discussant: Massimiliano Pisani (Bank of Italy)

Session 10

Session Chair: Özer Karagedikli (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

The future of oil: Some illustrative scenarios
Presented by: Armen Nurbekyan (Central Bank of Armenia)
Discussant: Hilde C Bjørnland (BI Norwegian Business School and Norges Bank)

2016 central bank macro-modelling workshop: Central Bank of Armenia
Presented by: Armen Nurbekyan (Central Bank of Armenia)