Overview
The 2015 workshop on 'Challenges for Open Economies' focused on the growing real and financial linkages among economies and their implications for policy analysis. Topics of particular interest included:
- exchange rate determination and impacts
- the terms of trade and commodity prices
- international factor mobility
- policy spillovers
- the international dimension of inflation dynamics.
Keynote speakers
Frank Smets (European Central Bank)
Warwick McKibbin (Australian National University)
Programme for Monday 7 December
Session 1: Keynote 1
Session chair: John McDermott (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Challenges for macro models used at central banks
Presented by: Frank Smets (European Central Bank)
Session 2: The international dimension of monetary policy
Session chair: Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Melbourne and Melbourne Institute)
Dealing with time-inconsistency: Inflation targeting vs exchange rate targeting
Presented by: Ippei Fujiwara (Keio University)
Discussant: Mariano Kulish (University of New South Wales)
Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?
Presented by: Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul (Bank of International Settlements)
Discussant: Renee McKibbin (Australian National University)
Session 3: International comovement
Session chair: Kulio Carrillo (Bank of Mexico)
Foreign shocks
Presented by: Drago Bergholt (Norges Bank)
Discussant: Güneş Kamber (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Do long term interest rates drive the business cycle in a small economy?
Presented by: Grzegorz Wesolowski (National Bank of Poland)
Discussant: James Yetman (Bank for International Settlements)
Session 4: The global dimension of inflation
Session chair: Alfred Guender (University of Canterbury)
International inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Philips curve: The role of the global output gap
Presented by: Pym Manopimoke (Bank of Thailand)
Discussant: Miles Parker (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Forecasting local inflation with global inflation: When economic theory meets the facts
Presented by: Roberto Duncan (Ohio University)
Discussant: Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Melbourne and Melbourne Institute)
Session 5: Policy spillovers
Session chair: Timothy Kam (Australian National University)
Inflation, financial conditions and non-standard monetary policy in a monetary union: A model-based evaluation
Presented by: Massimiliano Pisani (Bank of Italy)
Discussant: Julio Carrillo (Bank of Mexico)
International spillovers of large-scale asset purchases
Presented by: Serdar Kabaca (Bank of Canada)
Discussant: Drago Bergholt (Norges Bank)
Session 6
Session chair: Christie Smith (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Monetary policy forecast and global indicators
Presented by: Hilde C Bjørnland (BI Norwegian Business School and Norges Bank)
Discussant: James Morley (University of New South Wales)
Programme for Tuesday 8 December
Session 7: Keynote 2
Session chair: Benjamin Wong (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Long term projections and factor shares
Presented by: Warwick McKibbin (Australian National University)
Session 8: Longer run issues
Session Chair: Mariano Kulish (University of New South Wales)
A reliable output gap that reflects policymakers' beliefs
Presented by: Güneş Kamber (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Discussant: Leif Anders Thorsrud (BI Norwegian Business School)
The neutral rate in a small open economy overlapping generations model
Presented by: Jose Dorich (Bank of Canada)
Discussant: Andrew Coleman (University of Otago and New Zealand Treasury)
Session 9: Financial-real economy interaction
Session Chair: Prasanna Gai (University of Auckland)
Systematic risk: A new trade-off for monetary policy?
Presented by: Stefan Laseen (International Monetary Fund)
Discussant: Timothy Kam (Australian National University)
A macroprudential stable funding requirement and monetary policy in a small open economy
Presented by: Punnoose Jacob (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Discussant: Massimiliano Pisani (Bank of Italy)
Session 10
Session Chair: Özer Karagedikli (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
The future of oil: Some illustrative scenarios
Presented by: Armen Nurbekyan (Central Bank of Armenia)
Discussant: Hilde C Bjørnland (BI Norwegian Business School and Norges Bank)
2016 central bank macro-modelling workshop: Central Bank of Armenia
Presented by: Armen Nurbekyan (Central Bank of Armenia)