The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25 percent.
Global financial market volatility has abated and the outlook for global growth appears to have stabilised after being revised down successively over recent quarters. There has been a modest recovery in commodity prices in recent months. However, the global economy remains weak despite very stimulatory monetary policy and significant downside risks remain.
Domestic activity continues to be supported by strong net immigration, construction, tourism and accommodative monetary policy. The dairy sector remains a moderating influence with export prices below break-even levels for most farmers.
The exchange rate is higher than appropriate given New Zealand’s low export commodity prices. Together with weak overseas inflation, this is holding down tradables inflation. A lower New Zealand dollar would raise tradables inflation and assist the tradables sector.
House price inflation in Auckland and other regions is adding to financial stability concerns. Auckland house prices in particular are at very high levels, and additional housing supply is needed.
There continue to be many uncertainties around the outlook. Internationally, these relate to the prospects for global growth and commodity prices, the outlook for global financial markets, and political risks. Domestically, the main uncertainties relate to inflation expectations, the possibility of continued high net immigration, and pressures in the housing market.
Headline inflation is low, mostly due to low fuel and other import prices. Long-term inflation expectations are well-anchored at two percent. After falling in recent quarters, short-term inflation expectations appear to have stabilised.
We expect inflation to strengthen reflecting the accommodative stance of monetary policy, increases in fuel and other commodity prices, an expected depreciation in the New Zealand dollar and some increase in capacity pressures.
Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative. Further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data.