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Explosiveness in G11 currencies

Daan Steenkamp

This paper tests for explosiveness in G11 currencies in daily data using a methodology that accounts for the possibility of non-stationary volatility. The results suggest that bouts of explosiveness in exchange rates are uncommon at a daily frequency. However, periods of explosiveness tend to last for several days. Such episodes only involve small changes in actual currency levels, which usually reverse shortly after. This paper identifies the currency in a currency pair that is experiencing explosive dynamics by also considering the dynamics of effective exchange rates of different currencies. There is high concordance with explosiveness in the broad value of the US dollar exchange rate, suggesting that there are relatively few instances where explosiveness in individual cross-rates reflected country-specific factors.

Steenkamp, Daan (2018). ‘Explosiveness in G11 currencies’, Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Volume 68(C), Pages 388-408, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.08.007.