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Inflation expectations and low inflation in New Zealand

Özer Karagedikli, Dr John McDermott

This paper finds that the changing behaviour of inflation expectations can explain much of the unusually low inflation in New Zealand. Across several empirical specifications of the Phillips curve, we observe that inflation expectations have become more backward-looking. We also find that the speed of adjustment in inflation expectations, proxied by the spread between short- and longer-term inflation expectations, can explain the unusually low inflation.

Karagedikli, Özer and John McDermott (2018). ‘Inflation expectations and low inflation in New Zealand’, New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor and Francis Journals, Volume 52(3), Pages 277-288, DOI: