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A Quarterly Post-World War II Real GDP Series for New Zealand

Viv B. Hall, Dr John McDermott

There are no official quarterly real GDP estimates for New Zealand, for the period prior to 1977. We report the development of a seasonally adjusted series for a period of more than 60 years from mid-1947, and evaluate statistical properties. The series were developed by linking quarterly observations from two recent official series to temporally disaggregated observations for an earlier time period. Annual real GDP series are disaggregated, using the information from two quarterly diffusion indexes, developed by Haywood and Campbell (1976). Three econometric models are used: the Chow and Lin (1971) model that disaggregates the level of GDP; and the Fern´andez (1981) and Litterman (1983) models that disaggregate changes in GDP. Our preferred quarterly series is based on results generated from the Chow-Lin model. We assess movements in the new series against qualitative findings from New Zealand’s post-WWII economic history. Supporting documents: Spreadsheet for DP 2009/12
Hall, Viv and John McDermott (2011). ‘A quarterly post-Second World War real GDP series for New Zealand’, New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor and Francis Journals, Volume 45(3), Pages 273-298, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2011.576649.