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Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty

Aaron Drew, Benjamin Hunt

Simple rules for guiding monetary policy actions have been shown to achieve policy objectives effectively. In many of these simple rules, policy prescriptions depend on the economy's level of potential output. However, potential output is unobservable and is estimated with uncertainty. We examine the effects that this uncertainty has on the stabilisation properties of three classes of simple efficient policy rules. Although the stabilisation properties deteriorate under uncertainty, the deterioration is less pronounced for rules that use forecasts of inflation rather than just contemporaneous inflation. Under the uncertainty considered, the magnitudes of the efficient response coefficients tend to increase.
Drew, Aaron and Benjamin Hunt (2000). ‘Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty’, Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, Volume 52(1-2), Pages 143-160, DOI: