Forecasting is an essential part of our monetary policy framework, enabling us to make informed decisions that help deliver price stability for New Zealanders. Our forecasting process allows us to navigate the challenges of uncertain and evolving economic conditions by using a combination of data, cutting edge models, and expert judgment.
As economic conditions shift, so too do our projections and policy outlook. The role of forecasting is not to predict the future with absolute precision but to provide the best possible guidance for setting monetary policy that keeps inflation stable and supports long-term economic wellbeing. By publishing transparent projections, we enhance accountability, improve public trust, and support more effective monetary policy. By continuously improving our forecasting methods and learning from past forecast errors, we can enhance the quality of monetary policy decision-making.