Reviews of forecast performance help to update the forecaster’s understanding of economic relationships and evaluate risks to the current outlook. This article compares the accuracy of the forecasts prepared for the Reserve Bank’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement with that of forecasts obtained from a suite of statistical models. It also examines whether the pattern of forecast errors has changed following the Global Financial Crisis.
Evaluating the Reserve Bank’s forecasting performance
Reviews of forecast performance help to update the forecaster’s understanding of economic relationships and evaluate risks to the current outlook. This article compares the accuracy of the forecasts prepared for the Reserve Bank’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement with that of forecasts obtained from a suite of statistical models. It also examines whether the pattern of forecast errors has changed following the Global Financial Crisis.