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Impact of the exchange rate on export volumes

Mark Smith

This article reviews our understanding of how export volumes (as opposed to export values) are influenced by the exchange rate and other factors. Recent analysis finds that the real TWI exchange rate has a sizeable effect on export volumes; the low measured elasticity of export volumes needs to be considered in light of the large cyclical movements in the TWI exchange rate. We also find that export sectors respond differently to the same exchange rate movement, with exports of services volumes (which include tourism) more exchange rate sensitive than export volumes from the agricultural sector.