Official Cash Rate to remain restrictive at 5.50 percent

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Estimated Taylor Rules updated for the post-crisis period

Ross Kendall, Tim Ng

The Taylor Rule is often used to describe simply how central banks adjust short-term interest rates in response to economic conditions. We use this approach to analyse monetary policy in New Zealand, Australia, and the United States since the early 1990s. We find that the response of monetary policy to changing economic conditions is similar in New Zealand and Australia. Robust results could not be found for the United States, and in recent years it has become even more difficult to do so as the Federal Reserve has been constrained by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.