Analytical Notes

The Analytical Notes series encompasses a range of background papers prepared by Reserve Bank staff.

Unless otherwise stated, views expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Reserve Bank.

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Measures for Assessing the sustainability of house prices in New Zealand
Matthew Brunton
AN2021/08, Analytical Note, 02/11/2021
This Note describes a range of metrics that can be used as indicators of whether current house prices have deviated from sustainable levels. This builds on literature where the value of houses is estimated using user-cost models. Research on understanding sustainable house prices is ongoing and this framework will be refined further over time.
Analytical Note: Measures for Assessing the sustainability of house prices in New Zealand (PDF 1.27 MB)
Technical appendix to Measures for Assessing the Sustainability of House Prices in New Zealand (PDF 907.62 KB)
Measures for Assessing the Sustainability of House Prices in New Zealand
Chronology of Analytical Notes
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AN2021/08
Measures for Assessing the sustainability of house prices in New Zealand
Matthew Brunton
 Analytical Note: Measures for Assessing the sustainability of house prices in New Zealand (PDF 1.27 MB)
This Note describes a range of metrics that can be used as indicators of whether current house prices have deviated from sustainable levels. This builds on literature where the value of houses is estimated using user-cost models. Research on understanding sustainable house prices is ongoing and this framework will be refined further over time.
AN2021/07
Monetary Policy Pass-Through to Mortgage Rates
Severin Bernhard; James Graham; Shaun Markham
 Monetary Policy Pass-Through to Mortgage Rates (PDF 1.43 MB)
This Note examines how monetary policy passes through to mortgage interest rates across the economy and at the individual bank level in the short and medium-term.
AN2021/06
Research on the impact of lower interest rates on wealth and income
Gulnara Nolan
 The household cash flow effects of low interest rates in New Zealand (PDF 383.86 KB)
The Reserve Bank is carrying out a wide range of research about the different ways changes in interest rates could affect the distribution of wealth and income in New Zealand. Each research paper is aimed at giving the bank (and other decision-makers) parts of the jigsaw puzzle, to help our understanding, rather than a complete picture all at once.
AN2021/05
Low interest rates - who are the winners and losers?
Jinny Leong
 An overview of the distributional effects of monetary policy (PDF 981.28 KB)
There are winners and losers when interest rates are cut, but the international evidence is not clear that this always means the rich get richer and the poor are worse off.
AN2021/04
Māori Financial Services Institutions and Arrangements
Roanna McLeod; Victor Lam
 Māori Financial Services Institutions and Arrangements (PDF 585.72 KB)
In this paper, we aim to examine whether the financial system is adequately meeting the needs of all New Zealanders, in terms of financial inclusion, literacy, and security, with a particular focus on the Māori community. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a better understanding of how the Māori economic world fits into the wider financial system that the Reserve Bank oversees.
AN2021/03
Minding our business: Drivers of New Zealand business investment over the last 20 years
Julia Ratcliffe; Eric Tong
 Minding our business: Drivers of New Zealand business investment over the last 20 years (PDF 1019.24 KB)
This Analytical Note aims to understand the drivers of business investment in New Zealand over the past 20 years.
AN2021/02
Funding and reserving Canterbury earthquake insurance claims
Robert Cole
 Funding and reserving Canterbury earthquake insurance claims (PDF 1.03 MB)
The 2010-11 Canterbury earthquakes are by far the most costly insurance event in New Zealand’s history with estimated property insurance claims costs of around $38 billion, and remain one of the most significant globally.
AN2021/01
Down to business: Which QSBO measures are the best at forecasting?
Hamish Fitchett; Finn Robinson
 Down to business: Which QSBO measures are the best at forecasting? (PDF 1.5 MB)
We investigate which measures from the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) are best at forecasting macroeconomic variables in New Zealand over the past decade.
AN2020/05
Regional Labour Market Spillovers
Cameron Haworth
 Regional Labour Market spillovers (PDF 1.13 MB)
This analytical note examines how unemployment in one region could spill over and influence unemployment in other regions.
AN2020/04
Economic impacts of COVID-19 containment measures
Tom Stannard; Gregorius Steven; Chris McDonald
 Economic impacts of COVID-19 containment measures (PDF 546.28 KB)
Containment measures are limiting the spread of COVID-19 and saving lives. It has come at a cost, however, of reduced economy activity. This paper outlines our estimates of the impact on GDP from each of the COVID-19 alert levels.
AN2020/02
Using job transitions data as a labour market indicator
Christopher Ball; Adam Richardson; Thomas van Florenstein Mulder
 Using job transitions data as a labour market indicator (PDF 718.89 KB)
AN2020/01
AN2019/03
Forecasting with a Global VAR model
Thomas van Florenstein Mulder; Tugrul Vehbi
 Forecasting with a Global VAR model (PDF 550.76 KB)
AN2018/07
Measuring Market Discipline in New Zealand
Cameron Haworth; Liam Gillies; Tobias Irrcher
 Measuring market discipline in New Zealand (PDF 1.48 MB)
AN2018/02
AN2015/05
AN2013/10
AN2013/08
AN2012/06
Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one
Rebecca Williams; David Gillmore; Nicolas Groshenny
 Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one (PDF 387.18 KB)