New Zealand's macroeconomic imbalances - causes and remedies, Wellington


Background

The New Zealand Treasury, in conjunction with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Victoria University of Wellington, held a high-level policy forum in June 2011.

We commissioned a limited number of eminent policy researchers to review aspects of New Zealand's economic performance and policy regime. Their papers formed the centrepiece of the forum, which also involved key public and private sector researchers, decision-makers and policy advisers.

The papers are available on the Treasury website.

This forum will build on and link to the policy forum hosted by the RBNZ and The Treasury in 2006.

Theme

The main focus of the forum will be on New Zealand's key external and internal imbalances. The papers will explore the following issues:

  • understanding the reasons for New Zealand's macroeconomic and financial imbalances, and the associated economic vulnerabilities;

  • exploring whether different fiscal, monetary, structural or exchange rate policies and frameworks might help unwind, or manage, the imbalances and/or improve cyclical performance.

Keynote Speakers

Philip Lane – Professor of Economics, Trinity College Dublin

Sebastian Edwards – Professor of International Business Economics, University of California Los Angeles

Craig Burnside – Professor of International Macroeconomics, Duke University

Attendance

By invitation only – Expressions of interest welcome from the public.

Contacts

Jess Wayte – macroeconomic.conference@treasury.govt.nz +64 4 917 6208

Main forum website

For more information see The Treasury website

Programme day 1

Date: Thursday 23 June 2011
Location: Intercontinental Hotel

8.15am

Arrival and coffee



8.45am

Welcome and opening comments: Gabriel Makhlouf, Acting Secretary, The Treasury New Zealand



Session 1

Chair: Tim Hampton (The Treasury, New Zealand)



9.00am

Keynote address

New Zealand and the Woody Allen Syndrome

Sebastian Edwards (Professor International Business Economics, University of California)

9.40am

Discussant: John McDermott (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

10am

General discussion



10.30am

Morning tea



Session 2

Chair: Tony Richards (Reserve Bank of Australia)



10.55am

Presentation

The Role of Housing in the NZ Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Imbalances

Peter Jarrett (Head of Division, Country Studies Division 1, OECD)

11.35am

Discussant: Michael Reddell (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

11.55am

General discussion



12.25pm

Lunch



1.15pm

Hon. Bill English (Minister of Finance) gives brief address to participants



Session 3

Chair: Christie Smith (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)



1.30pm

Keynote address

Understanding New Zealand's Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Vulnerabilities

Craig Burnside (Professor of Economics, Duke University)

2.10pm

Discussant: Christoph Thoenissen (Victoria University of Wellington)

2.30pm

General discussion



3.00pm

Afternoon tea



Session 4

Chair: David Hargreaves (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)



3.30pm

Presentation

The Macroprudential Policy Debate: Implications for New Zealand

Prasanna Gai (Professor of Economics, University of Auckland)

4.10pm

Discussant: Toni Gravelle (Deputy Chief Financial Stability Department, Bank of Canada)

4.30pm

General discussion



5.00pm

Drinks and canapes



6.45pm

Dinner for selected guests

Programme day 2

Date: Friday 24 June 2011
Location: Intercontinental Hotel

Session 5

Chair: Aaron Drew (New Zealand Superannuation Fund)



9.00am

Keynote address

External Imbalances and Macroeconomic Policy in New Zealand

Philip Lane (Professor International Macroeconomics, Trinity College, Dublin)

9.40am

Discussant: Norman Gemmell (The Treasury New Zealand)

10.00am

General discussion



10.30am

Morning tea



Session 6

Chair: Viv Hall (Victoria University of Wellington)

11.00am

Presentation

Making Fiscal Policy More Stabilising in the Next Upturn: Challenges and Policy Options

Anne-Marie Brook (Principal Advisor, The Treasury New Zealand)

11.40am

Discussant: David Plank (Managing Director, Head of Macro Research and Strategy, Australia/NZ, Deutsche Bank)

12.00pm

General discussion



12.30pm

Lunch



Session 7

Chair: Struan Little (The Treasury New Zealand)



1.30pm

Discussion panel

Brian Easton (Independent scholar and consultant, and Adjunct Professor at the Institute of Public Policy, AUT)

Arthur Grimes (Senior Fellow, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research and Adjunct Professor at the University of Waikato)

David Gruen (Executive Director (Domestic), Macroeconomic Group, Australian Treasury)

Hoe Ee Khor (Assistant Director, Asia and Pacific Dept, International Monetary Fund)



2.50pm

Closing comments: Geoff Bascand, Government Statistician and Chief Executive of Statistics New Zealand



3.00pm

Finish