Inflation targeting - prospects and challenges
Date: Wednesday 28 & Thursday 29 August 2019
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the International Monetary Fund are hosting a conference on the future of inflation targeting. Inflation targeting has delivered low, stable inflation and substantial macroeconomic stability over the last several decades (financial crisis aside). But the last ten years have proved challenging for monetary authorities. Output has been below pre-crisis trends for a sustained period, unemployment rates have been protractedly high relative to ‘natural rates’ and inflation rates in many countries have been persistently below targeted levels. Monetary authorities have been forced to rely on unconventional policies and have kept policy rates low for a long time to stabilise economies. These policy responses have led to renewed debate about central bank mandates, accountability, and independence. Challenges to established monetary policy practice have also arisen from rapid technological change and digital currencies.
Keynotes
- Prof Jinill Kim, Korea University
- Dr Mary C. Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Watch the keynote speech on dual mandate framework for monetary policymaking by Dr Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Enquiries
RBNZ-IMFconference2019@rbnz.govt.nz
Organising committee
Murat Özbilgin (RBNZ), Fang Yao (RBNZ), Thomas Helbling (IMF), Siegfried Steinlein (IMF)
Programme
Wednesday 28 August
Opening remarks
9.15 - 9.30am
Christian Hawkesby (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Chikahisa Sumi (International Monetary Fund)
Session 1: Keynote 1
9.30 - 10.30am
Session Chair: Christie Smith (Electricity Authority)
Central Bank Mandates
Presented by: Jinill Kim (Korea University)
Morning Tea
10.30 - 11.00am
Session 2: Understanding (Wage) Inflation
11.00 - 12.30pm
Session Chair: Thomas Helbling (International Monetary Fund)
Paper 1: Pass-through from short term to long-term inflation expectations, and the anchoring of inflation expectations
Presented by: James Yetman (Bank for International Settlements)
Discussant: Karsten Chipeniuk (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Paper 2: Employer concentration and income growth in New Zealand
Presented by: Christopher Ball (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Discussant: Paul Cashin (International Monetary Fund)
Lunch
12.30 - 1.30pm
Sessions 3: Frontiers in Monetary Policy Modelling
1.30 - 3.00pm
Session Chair: Odd Per Brekk (International Monetary Fund)
Paper 1: A Demand Theory of the Price Level
Presented by: Marcus Hagedorn (University of Oslo and CEPR)
Discussant: Yevgeniy Teryoshin (University of Nevada)
Paper 2: Inflation Target Uncertainty and Monetary Policy
Presented by: Yevgeniy Teryoshin (University of Nevada)
Discussant: Marcus Hagedorn (University of Oslo and CEPR)
Afternoon Tea
3.00 - 3.30pm
Session 4: Monetary - Fiscal Interactions
3.30 - 5.00pm
Session Chair: Murat Özbilgin (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Paper 1: Performance of Simple Interest Rate rules subject to Fiscal Policy
Presented by: Nigel McClung (Bank of Finland)
Discussant: Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California)
Paper 2: Inflation and exchange rate targeting challenges under fiscal dominance
Presented by: Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California)
Discussant: Nigel McClung (Bank of Finland)
Drinks and Canapes
5.15pm
Conference Dinner
6.30pm
Thursday 29 August
Session 5: Keynote 2
9.30 - 10.30am
Session Chair: Chikahisa Sumi (International Monetary Fund)
Labour Market
Presented by: Mary C. Daly (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Morning Tea
10.30 - 11.00am
Session 6: Inflation Expectations
Session Chair: Adam Richardson (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Paper 1: The impact of regime change on the influence of the central bank's inflation forecasts: Recent evidence from Japan
Presented by: Toshitaka Sekine (Bank of Japan)
Discussant: Thomas Helbling (International Monetary Fund)
Paper 2: Anchoring of Japanese Inflation Expectations
Presented by: Paul Cashin (International Monetary Fund)
Discussant: Christopher Ball (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Lunch
12.30 - 1.30pm
Session 7: Panel discussion 1: Issues in Monetary Policy
1.30 - 2.30pm
Moderator: Yuong Ha (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Panellists:
Christian Hawkesby (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Marzunisham Bin Omar (Bank Negara Malaysia)
James Yetman (Bank for International Settlements)
Michael D Patra (Reserve Bank of India)
Afternoon Tea
2.30 - 3pm
Session 8: Panel discussion 2: Governance of Central Banks
3.00 - 4.00pm
Moderator: Odd Per Brekk (International Monetary Fund)
Panellists:
Geoff Bascand (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Jonathan Kearns (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Toshitaka Sekine (Bank of Japan)
Closing Comments
4.00pm
Geoff Bascand (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)