Inflation targeting - prospects and challenges

IMF logos

 

Date: Wednesday 28 & Thursday 29 August 2019

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the International Monetary Fund are hosting a conference on the future of inflation targeting. Inflation targeting has delivered low, stable inflation and substantial macroeconomic stability over the last several decades (financial crisis aside). But the last ten years have proved challenging for monetary authorities. Output has been below pre-crisis trends for a sustained period, unemployment rates have been protractedly high relative to ‘natural rates’ and inflation rates in many countries have been persistently below targeted levels. Monetary authorities have been forced to rely on unconventional policies and have kept policy rates low for a long time to stabilise economies. These policy responses have led to renewed debate about central bank mandates, accountability, and independence. Challenges to established monetary policy practice have also arisen from rapid technological change and digital currencies.

Keynotes

  • Prof Jinill Kim, Korea University
  • Dr Mary C. Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Watch the keynote speech on dual mandate framework for monetary policymaking by Dr Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Enquiries

RBNZ-IMFconference2019@rbnz.govt.nz

Organising committee

Murat Özbilgin (RBNZ), Fang Yao (RBNZ), Thomas Helbling (IMF), Siegfried Steinlein (IMF)

Programme

Wednesday 28 August

Opening remarks

9.15 - 9.30am

Christian Hawkesby (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Chikahisa Sumi (International Monetary Fund)

Session 1: Keynote 1

9.30 - 10.30am

Session Chair: Christie Smith (Electricity Authority)

Central Bank Mandates

Presented by: Jinill Kim (Korea University)

Morning Tea

10.30 - 11.00am

Session 2: Understanding (Wage) Inflation

11.00 - 12.30pm

Session Chair: Thomas Helbling (International Monetary Fund)

Paper 1: Pass-through from short term to long-term inflation expectations, and the anchoring of inflation expectations

Presented by: James Yetman (Bank for International Settlements)
Discussant: Karsten Chipeniuk (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Paper 2: Employer concentration and income growth in New Zealand

Presented by: Christopher Ball (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Discussant: Paul Cashin (International Monetary Fund)

Lunch

12.30 - 1.30pm

Sessions 3: Frontiers in Monetary Policy Modelling

1.30 - 3.00pm

Session Chair: Odd Per Brekk (International Monetary Fund)

Paper 1: A Demand Theory of the Price Level

Presented by: Marcus Hagedorn (University of Oslo and CEPR)
Discussant: Yevgeniy Teryoshin (University of Nevada)

Paper 2: Inflation Target Uncertainty and Monetary Policy

Presented by: Yevgeniy Teryoshin (University of Nevada)
Discussant: Marcus Hagedorn (University of Oslo and CEPR)

Afternoon Tea

3.00 - 3.30pm

Session 4: Monetary - Fiscal Interactions

3.30 - 5.00pm

Session Chair: Murat Özbilgin (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Paper 1: Performance of Simple Interest Rate rules subject to Fiscal Policy

Presented by: Nigel McClung (Bank of Finland)
Discussant: Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California)

Paper 2: Inflation and exchange rate targeting challenges under fiscal dominance

Presented by: Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California)
Discussant: Nigel McClung (Bank of Finland)

Drinks and Canapes

5.15pm

Conference Dinner

6.30pm

Thursday 29 August

Session 5: Keynote 2

9.30 - 10.30am

Session Chair: Chikahisa Sumi (International Monetary Fund)

Labour Market

Presented by: Mary C. Daly (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Morning Tea

10.30 - 11.00am

Session 6: Inflation Expectations

Session Chair: Adam Richardson (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Paper 1: The impact of regime change on the influence of the central bank's inflation forecasts: Recent evidence from Japan

Presented by: Toshitaka Sekine (Bank of Japan)
Discussant: Thomas Helbling (International Monetary Fund)

Paper 2: Anchoring of Japanese Inflation Expectations

Presented by: Paul Cashin (International Monetary Fund)
Discussant: Christopher Ball (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Lunch

12.30 - 1.30pm

Session 7: Panel discussion 1: Issues in Monetary Policy

1.30 - 2.30pm

Moderator: Yuong Ha (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Panellists:

Christian Hawkesby (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Marzunisham Bin Omar (Bank Negara Malaysia)
James Yetman (Bank for International Settlements)
Michael D Patra (Reserve Bank of India)

Afternoon Tea

2.30 - 3pm

Session 8: Panel discussion 2: Governance of Central Banks

3.00 - 4.00pm

Moderator: Odd Per Brekk (International Monetary Fund)

Panellists:

Geoff Bascand (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Jonathan Kearns (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Toshitaka Sekine (Bank of Japan)

Closing Comments

4.00pm

Geoff Bascand (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)