Australasian macroeconomics workshop

Workshop held on 4-5 April 2002, Wellington, New Zealand

The 7th annual Australasian Macroeconomics Workshop will be hosted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with assistance from Victoria University of Wellington. The Workshop will be held in the Faculty of Law, Government Buildings, 15 Lambton Quay, Wellington, on April 4 and 5, 2002.

The Workshop, crossing the Tasman Sea for the first time, follows the successful Workshops at the University of Adelaide (2001), University of Queensland (2000), the Australian National University (1999), the University of Tasmania (1998), the University of New South Wales (1997) and the University of Melbourne (1996).

The format of the Workshop will be similar to that in previous years. The emphasis is on the participants presenting their work for the purposes of feedback: plenty of time is left for the discussant and the floor, and there are no invited or keynote speakers. Workshop participants are typically staff from universities and policy institutions with a professional interest in macroeconomics.

The Workshop is run in a series of 90 minute sessions. Each session (organised around a topical area) will comprise the presentation and discussion of three contributed papers. Paper presentation will be kept to around 15-17 minutes. Presenters are therefore encouraged to be succinct and to get across the key elements and contributions of their paper quickly and clearly. Each paper will have a formal discussant and the discussant will have 8-10 minutes. It is hoped that the discussant will provide important feedback to the authors and also try to encourage general discussion amongst the audience. The remaining time will be devoted to questions from the audience.

Coffee and lunch breaks will be provided between the sessions. The Workshop dinner will take place on Thursday evening at the Backbencher Pub & Café, 34 Molesworth Street, Wellington.

We very much hope that you will be able to attend. Also, please point other macroeconomists who may not be aware of the Workshop towards this website.

Submission of papers

The strict closing date for submission of abstracts is 1st February 2001. Note that, given there are usually more papers submitted than can be accepted for presentation, authors are encouraged to submit a detailed abstract (minimum 500 words) and preferably the entire paper, in order to facilitate the refereeing process that will determine the final Workshop program.

Please submit abstracts to:

David Hargreaves

Reserve Bank of New Zealand
2 The Terrace
PO Box 2094
Wellington, New Zealand

Email: hargreavesd@rbnz.govt.nz
Telephone: 64 4-471-3665
Fax: 64 4-473-1209

Registration

Registration is from 8.30 am to 9.00 am, on Thursday, 4 April in room G07 at the Workshop venue.

The registration fee is NZ$30 payable by either cash or NZ cheque.

The Workshop dinner is NZ$35 and is payable at registration. The dinner will be held at 7.00pm on Thursday, at the Backbencher Pub & Café, 34 Molesworth Street, Wellington.

Workshop papers will be available from the registration office, but we advise you take your own copies as only a limited number of papers will be available.

The final programme will be available at registration.

A few pens and pads will be located in the registration office and in each of the lecture theatres for your use.

Venue/map

Lectures will be held in rooms LT3 and LT4 (as noted on the programme).

Registration and refreshments will be held in room G07.

View the Government Buildings map and surrounding streets.

Thursday & Friday, 4 & 5 April 2002
Faculty of Law, Government Buildings, 15 Lambton Quay, Wellington
Lecture Theatres LT3 and LT4
(Sessions in LT3 unless otherwise noted)

Programme schedule for Thursday 4 April

- Opening -

8.30 am

Registration and coffee



9.00 am

Session A: Economic modelling


International SVAR factor modelling (PDF 460KB)


Renée Fry, Queensland University of Technology


Discussant - David Hargreaves*




A small estimated model (SEM) for New Zealand (PDF 119KB)


Yuong Ha and Tim Hampton, Reserve Bank of New Zealand


Discussant - Paul Gardiner




The New Zealand Treasury model (PDF 253KB)


Paul Gardiner and Kam Szeto, The Treasury, New Zealand


Discussant - James Twaddle



10.30 am

Morning tea



11.00 am

Parallel session: Lecture Theatre LT3


Session B: Macroeconomic policy


Unobservable-component estimates of output gaps in five Asian economies (PDF 141KB)


Stefan Gerlach+ - Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and Matthew Yiu


Discussant - Leni Hunter




New Zealand macroeconomic performance in the 1990s: trends and policy debates (PDF 253KB)


Heather Kirkham and Struan Little, The Treasury, New Zealand


Discussant - Viv Hall




Monetary policy effects in an Australian Bayesian VAR model (PDF 127KB)


Alex Joiner , Monash University


Discussant - Bob Buckle*



11.00 am

Parallel session: Lecture Theatre LT4


Session C: Growth and convergence


Income ranking, convergence speeds, and growth effects of inequality with two-dimensional adjustment (PDF 411KB)


Jie Zhang, University of Queensland


Discussant - Chris Plantier




Modelling social infrastructure and growth (PDF 287KB)


Martin S Chin, The University of Melbourne


Discussant - Ian King/Debasis Bandyopadhyay




Using a 2-sector growth model to assess the macroeconomic consequences of financial liberalisation (PDF 423KB)


Martin Chin and Yuan Chou+, The University of Melbourne


Discussant - Ian King*



12.30 pm

Lunch



1.30 pm

Parallel session: Lecture Theatre LT3


Session D: Labour markets


Chairperson - Kevin Fox




A new look at the impact of migration on the wage differential (PDF 66KB)


Hsiao-chuan Chang, The University of Melbourne


Discussant - Yuan Chou




"Residual" wage disparity in directed search equilibrium (PDF 160KB)


Dr Ian King+ - University of Auckland, John Keenes and Benoît Julien


Discussant - Jie Zhang



1.30 pm

Parallel session: Lecture Theatre LT4


Session E: Savings and the current account


City sizes, housing costs, and wealth


Dan Andrews, Reserve Bank of Australia


Discussant - Zac Lam




Housing values, deregulation, and household savings behaviour: The case of New Zealand (PDF 210KB)


Leslie Hull, Reserve Bank of New Zealand


Discussant - Iris Claus




Factor income shares and the current account of the New Zealand balance of payments (PDF 167KB)


Geoff Bertram, Victoria University of Wellington


Discussant - Struan Little*



3.00 pm

Afternoon tea



3.30 pm

Session F: Analysing business cycles


Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap (PDF 1078KB)


Weshah Razzak, Reserve Bank of New Zealand


Discussant - Stefan Gerlach




On growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data (PDF 322KB)


Bob Buckle+, David Haugh, The Treasury, NZ and Peter Thomson+, Statistics Research Associates Ltd, NZ


Discussant - Florin Citu




Dynamic asymmetries in the Australian labour market (PDF 457KB)


Dr Philip M Bodman, University of Queensland


Discussant - Mark Crosby*



5.00 pm

End of day one



7.00 pm

Dinner

The Backbencher Pub & Café

34 Molesworth Street, Wellington



Programme schedule for Friday 5 April

9.00 am

Session G: Monetary policy




Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand? (PDF 219KB)


Viv Hall+ - Victoria University of Wellington, Aaron Drew, John McDermott and Robert St Clair


Discussant - Renée Fry




Estimating a Taylor Rule for New Zealand with a time-varying neutral real rate (PDF 244 KB)


L Christopher Plantier+ and Dean Scrimgeour, Reserve Bank of New Zealand


Discussant - Dan Andrews



10.00 am

Morning tea



10.30 am

Session H: Exchange rates and international business cycles


The long run value of currencies: A Big Mac perspective (PDF 248KB)


Yihui Lan, The University of Western Australia


Discussant - Ozer Karagedikli




Can pricing to market explain the fact that $1AUD+$1NZ<$1USD? (PDF 84KB)


Mark Crosby, The University of Melbourne


Discussant - Alex Joiner




Economic fundamentals do matter for the NZD/AUD exchange rate (PDF 203KB)


Paul Conway, Westpac Banking Corporation


Discussant - Yuong Ha*



12.00 pm

Lunch



12.45 pm

Session I: Analysing national account statistics


Inter-industry linkages in New Zealand (PDF 474KB)


Iris Claus - The Treasury, New Zealand


Discussant - Geoff Bertram




Problems with (dis)aggregating productivity, and another productivity paradox (PDF 134KB)


Kevin J Fox - The University of New South Wales


Discussant - Glenn Otto*



1.45 pm

Break



2.00 pm

Session J: Long term trends


Productivity growth and convergence in the European Union, 1965-1998


Rolf Fare, Shawna Grosskopf, and Dimitri Margaritis+ - University of Waikato


Discussant - Dean Scrimgeour




Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand's GDP volatility decline


Bob Buckle+, David Haugh, The Treasury, NZ and Peter Thomson+, Statistics Research Associates Ltd, NZ


Discussant - Kevin Fox




Population ageing and fiscal policy in New Zealand (PDF 138KB)


Nick Davis and Richard Fabling+, The Treasury, New Zealand


Discussant - Mardi Dungey*



3.30 pm

Afternoon tea



4.00 pm

Session K: Open economies and the world environment


International contagion effects from the Russian crisis and the LTCM near-collapse (PDF 383KB)


Mardi Dungey+ - Australian National University, Renée Fry, Brenda González-Hermosillo and Vance Martin


Discussant - Leslie Hull




Are revisions to Consensus Forecasts predictable? (PDF 190KB)


Christie Smith and Anna Kulhavy, Reserve Bank of New Zealand


Discussant - Nick Davis




Understanding OECD output correlations (PDF 228KB)


Glenn Otto+ - University of New South Wales, Graham Voss and Luke Willard


Discussant - Dr Philip M. Bodman*



5.30 pm

End of conference




* Chair for the session


+ Person presenting paper if more than one author is listed

Workshop participants

A full list of participants will be available on Thursday afternoon, 4 April 2002

Company

Attendees

Australian National University

Economics Division

Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies

Canberra ACT 0200

AUSTRALIA

Mardi Dungey

Fellow

Tel: +61 2 6125 0304

Fax: +61 2 6125 3700

Email: mardi.dungey@anu.edu.au

University of Auckland

Department of Economics

Private Bag 92019

Auckland

NEW ZEALAND

Ian King

Associate Professor

Tel: +64 9 373 7599 ext 7664

Fax: +64 9 373 7427

Email: ip.king@auckland.ac.nz

Hong Kong Monetary Authority

30/F., 3 Garden Road, Central

HONG KONG

Stefan Gerlach

Executive Director (Research)

Tel: +852 2878 8800

Fax: +852 2878 2280/2878 2490

Email: Stefan_GERLACH@hkma.gov.hk

The University of Melbourne

Department of Economics

Parkville, Victoria 3065

Melbourne

AUSTRALIA

Fax: +61 3 8344 6899

Martin S Chin

Tel: +61 3 8344 5287

Email: m.chin@pgrad.unimelb.edu.au

Yuan Chou

Email: ychou@unimelb.edu.au

Mark Crosby

Email: mcrosby@unimelb.edu.au

Hsiao-chuan Chang

Lecturer

Tel: +61 3 8344 5364

Email: changh@unimelb.edu.au

Monash University

Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics

AUSTRALIA

Alex Joiner

Tel: +61 3 9905 2405

Email: Alex.Joiner@buseco.monash.edu.au

The University of New South Wales

School of Economics

Sydney 2052

AUSTRALIA

Kevin J Fox

Tel: +61 2 9385 3320

Fax: +61 2 9313 6337

Email: K.Fox@unsw.edu.au

Glenn Otto

Email: g.otto@unsw.edu.au

Queensland University of Technology

Department of Economics and Finance

Brisbane, QLD 4006

AUSTRALIA

Renée Fry

Lecturer

Tel: +61 7 3864 2901

Email: ra.fry@qut.edu.au

University of Queensland

School of Economics

Brisbane, QLD4072

AUSTRALIA

Dr Philip M Bodman

Senior Lecturer

Tel: +61 7 3365 6440

Fax: +61 7 3365 7299

Mob: +409 764 157

Email: P.Bodman@economics.uq.edu.au

Jie Zhang

Senior Lecturer

Tel: +61 7 3365 6488

Fax: +61 7 3365 7299

Email: j.zhang@economics.uq.edu.au

Reserve Bank of Australia

Economic Research Department 65, Martin Place, GPO Box 3947

Sydney, NSW 2001

AUSTRALIA

Daniel (Dan) Andrews

Tel: +61 2 9551 8857

Fax: +61 2 9551 8833

Email: andrewsd@rba.gov.au

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

No 2 The Terrace, PO Box 2498

Wellington

NEW ZEALAND

Tel: +64 4 472 2029

Fax: +64 4 473 1209

David Hargreaves

Anna Kulhavy

Chris Plantier

Christie Smith

Dean Scrimgeour

Florin Citu

James Twaddle

Leslie Hull

Tim Hampton

Weshah Razzak

Yuong Ha

Ozer Karagedikli

The Treasury

1 The Terrace, PO Box 3724

Wellington

NEW ZEALAND

Tel: +64 4 472 7233

Iris Claus

Email: Iris.Claus@treasury.govt.nz

Kam Szeto

Email: Kam.Szeto@treasury.govt.nz

Nick Davis

Email: Nick.Davis@treasury.govt.nz

Paul Gardiner

Email: Paul.Gardiner@treasury.govt.nz

Peter Thomson

Email: Peter.Thomson@treasury.govt.nz

Richard Fabling

Email: Richard.Fabling@treasury.govt.nz

Robert (Bob) Buckle

Email: Robert.Buckle@treasury.govt.nz

Struan Little

Email: Struan.Little@treasury.govt.nz

Victoria University of Wellington

Economics and Finance

PO Box 600

Wellington

NEW ZEALAND

Tel: +64 4 472 1000

Viv Hall

Professor

Email: viv.hall@vuw.ac.nz

Geoff Bertram

Senior Lecturer

Tel: +64 4 472 1000 ext 8551

Email: Geoff.Bertram@vuw.ac.nz

Zac Lam

University of Waikato

Department of Economics

Private Bag 3105

Hamilton

NEW ZEALAND

Dimitri Margaritis

Tel: +64 7 838 4454

Email: dimitri@mngt.waikato.ac.nz

University of Western Australia

Economic Research Centre

Department of Economics

AUSTRALIA

Yihui Lan

Tel: +61 8 938 01368

Fax: +61 8 9380 1073

Westpac Banking Corporation

PO Box 691

Wellington

NEW ZEALAND

Paul Conway

Adviser

Tel: +64 4 381 1414

Email: paulconway@westpac.com.au

Contact details

David Hargreaves

Reserve Bank of New Zealand
2 The Terrace
PO Box 2498
Wellington, New Zealand

Email: hargreavesd@rbnz.govt.nz
Telephone: 64 4-471-3665
Fax: 64 4-473-1209

Accommodation

The Reserve Bank has block bookings at the following places, both are within easy walking distance of the conference location. If you would like a reservation made or would like to discuss accommodation options, please email Louise.

Ibis Hotel Wellington

153 Featherston Street

Wellington

Tel: +64 4 496 1880, Fax: +64 4 496 1881

Rate: Weekdays $136, Weekends (incl. Friday) $111

Rates include GST

Downtown Backpackers

1 Bunny Street

Wellington

Tel: +64 4 473 8482, Fax: +64 4 471 1073

Rate: $40 includes GST