Australasian macroeconomics workshop

Workshop held on 4-5 April 2002, Wellington, New Zealand

The 7th annual Australasian Macroeconomics Workshop will be hosted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with assistance from Victoria University of Wellington. The Workshop will be held in the Faculty of Law, Government Buildings, 15 Lambton Quay, Wellington, on April 4 and 5, 2002.

The Workshop, crossing the Tasman Sea for the first time, follows the successful Workshops at the University of Adelaide (2001), University of Queensland (2000), the Australian National University (1999), the University of Tasmania (1998), the University of New South Wales (1997) and the University of Melbourne (1996).

The format of the Workshop will be similar to that in previous years. The emphasis is on the participants presenting their work for the purposes of feedback: plenty of time is left for the discussant and the floor, and there are no invited or keynote speakers. Workshop participants are typically staff from universities and policy institutions with a professional interest in macroeconomics.

The Workshop is run in a series of 90 minute sessions. Each session (organised around a topical area) will comprise the presentation and discussion of three contributed papers. Paper presentation will be kept to around 15-17 minutes. Presenters are therefore encouraged to be succinct and to get across the key elements and contributions of their paper quickly and clearly. Each paper will have a formal discussant and the discussant will have 8-10 minutes. It is hoped that the discussant will provide important feedback to the authors and also try to encourage general discussion amongst the audience. The remaining time will be devoted to questions from the audience.

Coffee and lunch breaks will be provided between the sessions. The Workshop dinner will take place on Thursday evening at the Backbencher Pub & Café, 34 Molesworth Street, Wellington.

We very much hope that you will be able to attend. Also, please point other macroeconomists who may not be aware of the Workshop towards this website.

Submission of papers

The strict closing date for submission of abstracts is 1st February 2001. Note that, given there are usually more papers submitted than can be accepted for presentation, authors are encouraged to submit a detailed abstract (minimum 500 words) and preferably the entire paper, in order to facilitate the refereeing process that will determine the final Workshop program.

Please submit abstracts to:

David Hargreaves

Reserve Bank of New Zealand
2 The Terrace
PO Box 2094
Wellington, New Zealand

Email: [email protected]
Telephone: 64 4-471-3665
Fax: 64 4-473-1209


Registration is from 8.30 am to 9.00 am, on Thursday, 4 April in room G07 at the Workshop venue.

The registration fee is NZ$30 payable by either cash or NZ cheque.

The Workshop dinner is NZ$35 and is payable at registration. The dinner will be held at 7.00pm on Thursday, at the Backbencher Pub & Café, 34 Molesworth Street, Wellington.

Workshop papers will be available from the registration office, but we advise you take your own copies as only a limited number of papers will be available.

The final programme will be available at registration.

A few pens and pads will be located in the registration office and in each of the lecture theatres for your use.


Lectures will be held in rooms LT3 and LT4 (as noted on the programme).

Registration and refreshments will be held in room G07.

View the Government Buildings map and surrounding streets.

Thursday & Friday, 4 & 5 April 2002
Faculty of Law, Government Buildings, 15 Lambton Quay, Wellington
Lecture Theatres LT3 and LT4
(Sessions in LT3 unless otherwise noted)

Programme schedule for Thursday 4 April

- Opening -

8.30 am

Registration and coffee

9.00 am

Session A: Economic modelling

International SVAR factor modelling (PDF 460KB)

Renée Fry, Queensland University of Technology

Discussant - David Hargreaves*

A small estimated model (SEM) for New Zealand (PDF 119KB)

Yuong Ha and Tim Hampton, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Discussant - Paul Gardiner

The New Zealand Treasury model (PDF 253KB)

Paul Gardiner and Kam Szeto, The Treasury, New Zealand

Discussant - James Twaddle

10.30 am

Morning tea

11.00 am

Parallel session: Lecture Theatre LT3

Session B: Macroeconomic policy

Unobservable-component estimates of output gaps in five Asian economies (PDF 141KB)

Stefan Gerlach+ - Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and Matthew Yiu

Discussant - Leni Hunter

New Zealand macroeconomic performance in the 1990s: trends and policy debates (PDF 253KB)

Heather Kirkham and Struan Little, The Treasury, New Zealand

Discussant - Viv Hall

Monetary policy effects in an Australian Bayesian VAR model (PDF 127KB)

Alex Joiner , Monash University

Discussant - Bob Buckle*

11.00 am

Parallel session: Lecture Theatre LT4

Session C: Growth and convergence

Income ranking, convergence speeds, and growth effects of inequality with two-dimensional adjustment (PDF 411KB)

Jie Zhang, University of Queensland

Discussant - Chris Plantier

Modelling social infrastructure and growth (PDF 287KB)

Martin S Chin, The University of Melbourne

Discussant - Ian King/Debasis Bandyopadhyay

Using a 2-sector growth model to assess the macroeconomic consequences of financial liberalisation (PDF 423KB)

Martin Chin and Yuan Chou+, The University of Melbourne

Discussant - Ian King*

12.30 pm


1.30 pm

Parallel session: Lecture Theatre LT3

Session D: Labour markets

Chairperson - Kevin Fox

A new look at the impact of migration on the wage differential (PDF 66KB)

Hsiao-chuan Chang, The University of Melbourne

Discussant - Yuan Chou

"Residual" wage disparity in directed search equilibrium (PDF 160KB)

Dr Ian King+ - University of Auckland, John Keenes and Benoît Julien

Discussant - Jie Zhang

1.30 pm

Parallel session: Lecture Theatre LT4

Session E: Savings and the current account

City sizes, housing costs, and wealth

Dan Andrews, Reserve Bank of Australia

Discussant - Zac Lam

Housing values, deregulation, and household savings behaviour: The case of New Zealand (PDF 210KB)

Leslie Hull, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Discussant - Iris Claus

Factor income shares and the current account of the New Zealand balance of payments (PDF 167KB)

Geoff Bertram, Victoria University of Wellington

Discussant - Struan Little*

3.00 pm

Afternoon tea

3.30 pm

Session F: Analysing business cycles

Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap (PDF 1078KB)

Weshah Razzak, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Discussant - Stefan Gerlach

On growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data (PDF 322KB)

Bob Buckle+, David Haugh, The Treasury, NZ and Peter Thomson+, Statistics Research Associates Ltd, NZ

Discussant - Florin Citu

Dynamic asymmetries in the Australian labour market (PDF 457KB)

Dr Philip M Bodman, University of Queensland

Discussant - Mark Crosby*

5.00 pm

End of day one

7.00 pm


The Backbencher Pub & Café

34 Molesworth Street, Wellington

Programme schedule for Friday 5 April

9.00 am

Session G: Monetary policy

Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand? (PDF 219KB)

Viv Hall+ - Victoria University of Wellington, Aaron Drew, John McDermott and Robert St Clair

Discussant - Renée Fry

Estimating a Taylor Rule for New Zealand with a time-varying neutral real rate (PDF 244 KB)

L Christopher Plantier+ and Dean Scrimgeour, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Discussant - Dan Andrews

10.00 am

Morning tea

10.30 am

Session H: Exchange rates and international business cycles

The long run value of currencies: A Big Mac perspective (PDF 248KB)

Yihui Lan, The University of Western Australia

Discussant - Ozer Karagedikli

Can pricing to market explain the fact that $1AUD+$1NZ<$1USD? (PDF 84KB)

Mark Crosby, The University of Melbourne

Discussant - Alex Joiner

Economic fundamentals do matter for the NZD/AUD exchange rate (PDF 203KB)

Paul Conway, Westpac Banking Corporation

Discussant - Yuong Ha*

12.00 pm


12.45 pm

Session I: Analysing national account statistics

Inter-industry linkages in New Zealand (PDF 474KB)

Iris Claus - The Treasury, New Zealand

Discussant - Geoff Bertram

Problems with (dis)aggregating productivity, and another productivity paradox (PDF 134KB)

Kevin J Fox - The University of New South Wales

Discussant - Glenn Otto*

1.45 pm


2.00 pm

Session J: Long term trends

Productivity growth and convergence in the European Union, 1965-1998

Rolf Fare, Shawna Grosskopf, and Dimitri Margaritis+ - University of Waikato

Discussant - Dean Scrimgeour

Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand's GDP volatility decline

Bob Buckle+, David Haugh, The Treasury, NZ and Peter Thomson+, Statistics Research Associates Ltd, NZ

Discussant - Kevin Fox

Population ageing and fiscal policy in New Zealand (PDF 138KB)

Nick Davis and Richard Fabling+, The Treasury, New Zealand

Discussant - Mardi Dungey*

3.30 pm

Afternoon tea

4.00 pm

Session K: Open economies and the world environment

International contagion effects from the Russian crisis and the LTCM near-collapse (PDF 383KB)

Mardi Dungey+ - Australian National University, Renée Fry, Brenda González-Hermosillo and Vance Martin

Discussant - Leslie Hull

Are revisions to Consensus Forecasts predictable? (PDF 190KB)

Christie Smith and Anna Kulhavy, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Discussant - Nick Davis

Understanding OECD output correlations (PDF 228KB)

Glenn Otto+ - University of New South Wales, Graham Voss and Luke Willard

Discussant - Dr Philip M. Bodman*

5.30 pm

End of conference

* Chair for the session

+ Person presenting paper if more than one author is listed

Workshop participants

A full list of participants will be available on Thursday afternoon, 4 April 2002



Australian National University

Economics Division

Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies

Canberra ACT 0200


Mardi Dungey


Tel: +61 2 6125 0304

Fax: +61 2 6125 3700

Email: [email protected]

University of Auckland

Department of Economics

Private Bag 92019



Ian King

Associate Professor

Tel: +64 9 373 7599 ext 7664

Fax: +64 9 373 7427

Email: [email protected]

Hong Kong Monetary Authority

30/F., 3 Garden Road, Central


Stefan Gerlach

Executive Director (Research)

Tel: +852 2878 8800

Fax: +852 2878 2280/2878 2490

Email: [email protected]

The University of Melbourne

Department of Economics

Parkville, Victoria 3065



Fax: +61 3 8344 6899

Martin S Chin

Tel: +61 3 8344 5287

Email: [email protected]

Yuan Chou

Email: [email protected]

Mark Crosby

Email: [email protected]

Hsiao-chuan Chang


Tel: +61 3 8344 5364

Email: [email protected]

Monash University

Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics


Alex Joiner

Tel: +61 3 9905 2405

Email: [email protected]

The University of New South Wales

School of Economics

Sydney 2052


Kevin J Fox

Tel: +61 2 9385 3320

Fax: +61 2 9313 6337

Email: [email protected]

Glenn Otto

Email: [email protected]

Queensland University of Technology

Department of Economics and Finance

Brisbane, QLD 4006


Renée Fry


Tel: +61 7 3864 2901

Email: [email protected]

University of Queensland

School of Economics

Brisbane, QLD4072


Dr Philip M Bodman

Senior Lecturer

Tel: +61 7 3365 6440

Fax: +61 7 3365 7299

Mob: +409 764 157

Email: [email protected]

Jie Zhang

Senior Lecturer

Tel: +61 7 3365 6488

Fax: +61 7 3365 7299

Email: [email protected]

Reserve Bank of Australia

Economic Research Department 65, Martin Place, GPO Box 3947

Sydney, NSW 2001


Daniel (Dan) Andrews

Tel: +61 2 9551 8857

Fax: +61 2 9551 8833

Email: [email protected]

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

No 2 The Terrace, PO Box 2498



Tel: +64 4 472 2029

Fax: +64 4 473 1209

David Hargreaves

Anna Kulhavy

Chris Plantier

Christie Smith

Dean Scrimgeour

Florin Citu

James Twaddle

Leslie Hull

Tim Hampton

Weshah Razzak

Yuong Ha

Ozer Karagedikli

The Treasury

1 The Terrace, PO Box 3724



Tel: +64 4 472 7233

Iris Claus

Email: [email protected]

Kam Szeto

Email: [email protected]

Nick Davis

Email: [email protected]

Paul Gardiner

Email: [email protected]

Peter Thomson

Email: [email protected]

Richard Fabling

Email: [email protected]

Robert (Bob) Buckle

Email: [email protected]

Struan Little

Email: [email protected]

Victoria University of Wellington

Economics and Finance

PO Box 600



Tel: +64 4 472 1000

Viv Hall


Email: [email protected]

Geoff Bertram

Senior Lecturer

Tel: +64 4 472 1000 ext 8551

Email: [email protected]

Zac Lam

University of Waikato

Department of Economics

Private Bag 3105



Dimitri Margaritis

Tel: +64 7 838 4454

Email: [email protected]

University of Western Australia

Economic Research Centre

Department of Economics


Yihui Lan

Tel: +61 8 938 01368

Fax: +61 8 9380 1073

Westpac Banking Corporation

PO Box 691



Paul Conway


Tel: +64 4 381 1414

Email: [email protected]

Contact details

David Hargreaves

Reserve Bank of New Zealand
2 The Terrace
PO Box 2498
Wellington, New Zealand

Email: [email protected]
Telephone: 64 4-471-3665
Fax: 64 4-473-1209


The Reserve Bank has block bookings at the following places, both are within easy walking distance of the conference location. If you would like a reservation made or would like to discuss accommodation options, please email Louise.

Ibis Hotel Wellington

153 Featherston Street


Tel: +64 4 496 1880, Fax: +64 4 496 1881

Rate: Weekdays $136, Weekends (incl. Friday) $111

Rates include GST

Downtown Backpackers

1 Bunny Street


Tel: +64 4 473 8482, Fax: +64 4 471 1073

Rate: $40 includes GST