Assessing forecast performance

Release date
16/06/2016
Reference
Vol. 79. No. 10. June 2016
Author
Kirdan Lees
Main file
ISSN
1177-8644
Assessing the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts is critical to identifying opportunities to improve macroeconomic advice. For example, revealing and then removing bias – from either persistently under- or over-estimating economic activity – would allow a policymaker to better assess the state of the economy, improving monetary (and fiscal) policy. Policy might also be improved by incorporating the beliefs of forecasters with a good track record.