Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information

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Leo Krippner; Leif Anders Thorsrud
We forecast economic growth in New Zealand using yield curve data within simple statistical models; i.e. typical OLS relationships that have been well-established for other countries, and related VAR specifications. We find that the yield curve data has significant forecasting power in absolute terms and performs well relative to various benchmarks. Specifications including measures of the yield curve slope produce the best forecasts overall. Our results also highlight the benefits of fully exploiting the timeliness of yield curve information (i.e it is always available and up to date).