Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities

Release date
01/12/2008
Reference
DP2008/18
Authors
Anne Sofie Jore; James Mitchell; Shaun P. Vahey
Published as
Jore, Anne Sofie, James Mitchell and Shaun Vahey (2010). ‘Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Wiley, Volume 25(4), Pages 621-634, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1162.
Recursive-weight forecast combination is often found to an ineffective method of improving point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain instabilities. We examine the effectiveness of this strategy for forecast densities using (many) VARs and ARs of output, prices and interest rates. Our proposed recursive-weights density combination strategy, based on the recursive logarithmic score of the forecast densities, produces accurate predictive densities by giving substantial weight to models that allow for structural breaks. In contrast, equal-weight combinations produce poor real-time US forecast densities for Great Moderation data.