Explaining Movements in the NZ Dollar - Central Bank Communication and the Surprise Element in Monetary Policy?

Release date
01/01/2008
Reference
DP2008/02
Authors
Özer Karagedikli; Pierre L. Siklos
We conduct a high frequency event analysis to estimate the effects of monetary policy surprises, data surprises, and central bank verbal statements on the New Zealand-US dollar and the New Zealand-Australian dollar exchange rates. We find data surprises and monetary policy surprises have significant and large effects on exchange rate movements. More importantly, RBNZ interest rate decisions have a largely permanent impact on the exchange rate. Significantly, the impact of the published interest rate track seems to explain some 10 per cent additional variation in the exchange rate.