Uncovering the hit-list for small inflation targeters - a Bayesian structural analysis

Release date
Timothy Kam; Kirdan Lees; Philip Liu
Published as
Kam, Timothy, Kirdan Lees and Phillip Liu (2009). ‘Uncovering the hit list for small inflation targeters: A bayesian structural analysis’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Wiley, Volume 41(4), Pages 583-618, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00224.x.
We estimate underlying macroeconomic policy objectives of three of the earliest explicit inflation targeters – Australia, Canada and New Zealand – within the context of a small open economy DSGE model. We assume central banks set policy optimally, such that we can reverse engineer policy objectives from observed time series data. We find that none of the central banks show a concern for stabilizing the real exchange rate. However, all three central banks share a concern for minimizing the volatility in the change in the nominal interest rate. The Reserve Bank of Australia places the most weight on minimizing the deviation of output from trend. Tests of the posterior distributions of these policy preference parameters suggest that the central banks have very similar objectives.