Research and publications Analytical Notes

Analytical Notes

The Analytical Notes series encompasses a range of background papers prepared by Reserve Bank staff.

Unless otherwise stated, views expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Reserve Bank.

Latest Edition
Analytical Note Thumbnail
Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand
Punnoose Jacob; Martin Wong
AN2018/04, Analytical Note, 09/03/2018
Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand (PDF 810.77 KB)
Chronology of Analytical Notes
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AN2015/08
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s output gap indicator suite and its real-time properties
Jed Armstrong
 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's output gap indicator suite and its real-time properties (PDF 1.33 MB)
AN2015/07
El Niño and its impact on the New Zealand economy
Amy Wood; Dean Ford
 El Niño and its impact on the New Zealand economy (PDF 765.21 KB)
AN2015/06
A deeper look at recent housing market trends: insights from unit-record data
Hayden Skilling
 A deeper look at recent housing market trends: insights from unit-record data (PDF 339.87 KB)
AN2015/05
Estimating New Zealand’s neutral interest rate
Adam Richardson; Rebecca Williams
 Estimating New Zealand’s neutral interest rate (PDF 457.06 KB)
AN2015/04
Constructing cross country estimates of relative industry MFP levels
Daan Steenkamp
 Constructing cross country estimates of relative industry MFP levels (PDF 1.54 MB)
AN2015/03
Can global economic conditions explain low New Zealand inflation?
Adam Richardson
 Can global economic conditions explain low New Zealand inflation? (PDF 422.34 KB)
AN2015/02
Vulnerability of new mortgage borrowers prior to the introduction of the LVR speed limit: Insights from the Household Economic Survey
Ashley Dunstan; Hayden Skilling
 Vulnerability of new mortgage borrowers prior to the introduction of the LVR speed limit: Insights from the Household Economic Survey (PDF 383.74 KB)
AN2015/01
The Reserve Bank's method of estimating "potential output"
Ashley Lienert; David Gillmore
 The Reserve Bank's method of estimating "potential output" (PDF 533.95 KB)
AN2013/11
A closer look at some of the supply and demand factors influencing residential property markets
Elizabeth Watson
 A closer look at some of the supply and demand factors influencing residential property markets (PDF 623.87 KB)
AN2013/10
Migration and the housing market
Chris McDonald
 Migration and the housing market (PDF 441.66 KB)
AN2013/09
Fresh perspectives on unobservable variables: Data decomposition of the Kalman smoother
Nicholas Sander
 Fresh perspectives on unobservable variables: Data decomposition of the Kalman smoother (PDF 1.78 MB)
AN2013/08
What in the world moves New Zealand bond yields?
Michelle Lewis; Lauren Rosborough
 What in the world moves New Zealand bond yields? (PDF 608.17 KB)
AN2013/07
Neutral interest rates in the post-crisis period
Willy Chetwin; Amy Wood
 Neutral interest rates in the post-crisis period (PDF 696.04 KB)
AN2013/06
Some revisions to the sectoral factor model of core inflation
Gael Price
 Some revisions to the sectoral factor model of core inflation (PDF 355.69 KB)
AN2013/05
Estimating the impacts of restrictions on high LVR lending
Chris Bloor; Chris McDonald
 Estimating the impacts of restrictions on high LVR lending (PDF 372.01 KB)
AN2013/04
Estimated Taylor Rules updated for the post-crisis period
Ross Kendall; Tim Ng
 Estimated Taylor Rules updated for the post-crisis period (PDF 2.08 MB)
AN2013/03
New Zealand's short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility: drivers and policy implications
Willy Chetwin; Tim Ng; Daan Steenkamp
 New Zealand's short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility: drivers and policy implications (PDF 643.66 KB)
AN2013/02
Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand
Güneş Kamber; Chris McDonald; Gael Price
 Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand (PDF 3.43 MB)
AN2013/01
Productivity and the New Zealand dollar - Balassa-Samuelson tests on sectoral data
Daan Steenkamp
 Productivity and the New Zealand dollar - Balassa-Samuelson tests on sectoral data (PDF 448.9 KB)
AN2012/12
Market perceptions of exchange rate risk
Michelle Lewis
 Market perceptions of exchange rate risk (PDF 864.92 KB)
AN2012/11
Building a picture of New Zealand manufacturing
Gael Price
 Building a picture of New Zealand manufacturing (PDF 233.08 KB)
AN2012/10
Modelling New Zealand mortgage interest rates
Enzo Cassino
 Modelling New Zealand mortgage interest rates (PDF 1002.36 KB)
AN2012/09
Do actual and/or expected OCR changes affect the New Zealand dollar?
Jason Wong; Bevan Cook
 Do actual and/or expected OCR changes affect the New Zealand dollar? (PDF 387.07 KB)
AN2012/08
Extending the Reserve Bank's macroeconomic balance model of the exchange rate
James Graham; Daan Steenkamp
 Extending the Reserve Bank's macroeconomic balance model of the exchange rate (PDF 480.3 KB)
AN2012/07
Risk, return, and beyond - A conceptual analysis of some factors influencing New Zealanders' investment decisions
Elizabeth Watson
 Risk, return, and beyond - A conceptual analysis of some factors influencing New Zealanders' investment decisions (PDF 290.78 KB)
AN2012/06
Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one
Rebecca Williams; David Gillmore; Nicolas Groshenny
 Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one (PDF 387.18 KB)
AN2012/05
A model for interest rates near the zero lower bound - An overview and discussion
Leo Krippner
 A model for interest rates near the zero lower bound - An overview and discussion (PDF 324.32 KB)
AN2012/04
In search of greener pastures - improving the REINZ farm price index
Ashley Dunstan; Chris McDonald
 In search of greener pastures - improving the REINZ farm price index (PDF 141.53 KB)
AN2012/03
Currency intervention: the profitability of some recent international experiences
Enzo Cassino; Michelle Lewis
 Currency intervention: the profitability of some recent international experiences (PDF 603.07 KB)
AN2012/02
Kiwi drivers - the New Zealand dollar experience
Chris McDonald
 Kiwi drivers - the New Zealand dollar experience (PDF 1.41 MB)
AN2012/01
House price expectations of households - A preliminary analysis of new survey data
Graham Howard; Özer Karagedikli
 House price expectations of households - A preliminary analysis of new survey data (PDF 321.32 KB)
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