Analytical Notes
The Analytical Notes series encompasses a range of background papers prepared by Reserve Bank staff.
Unless otherwise stated, views expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Reserve Bank.
Latest Edition

Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand
Punnoose Jacob; Martin Wong
AN2018/04, Analytical Note, 09/03/2018
Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand (PDF 810.77 KB)
Punnoose Jacob; Martin Wong
AN2018/04, Analytical Note, 09/03/2018
Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand (PDF 810.77 KB)
Chronology of Analytical Notes
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AN2018/04
Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand
Punnoose Jacob; Martin Wong
Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand (PDF 810.77 KB)
Punnoose Jacob; Martin Wong
Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand (PDF 810.77 KB)
AN2018/03
AN2018/02
Funding cost pass-through to mortgage rates
Bevan Cook; Daan Steenkamp
Funding cost pass-through to mortgage rates (PDF 600.92 KB)
Bevan Cook; Daan Steenkamp
Funding cost pass-through to mortgage rates (PDF 600.92 KB)
AN2018/01
Measuring uncertainty and its impact on the New Zealand economy
Amy Rice; Tugrul Vehbi; Benjamin Wong
Measuring uncertainty and its impact on the New Zealand economy (PDF 1.29 MB)
Amy Rice; Tugrul Vehbi; Benjamin Wong
Measuring uncertainty and its impact on the New Zealand economy (PDF 1.29 MB)
AN2017/08
AN2017/07
Crypto-currencies – An introduction to not-so-funny moneys
Aaron Kumar; Christie Smith
Crypto-currencies – An introduction to not-so-funny moneys (PDF 1.28 MB)
Aaron Kumar; Christie Smith
Crypto-currencies – An introduction to not-so-funny moneys (PDF 1.28 MB)
AN2017/06
A factor model of commodity price co-movements: An application to New Zealand export prices
Amber Wadsworth; Adam Richardson
A factor model of commodity price co-movements: An application to New Zealand export prices (PDF 489.86 KB)
Amber Wadsworth; Adam Richardson
A factor model of commodity price co-movements: An application to New Zealand export prices (PDF 489.86 KB)
AN2017/05
Diving in the deep end of domestic deposits
Jed Armstrong; Nicholas Mulligan
Diving in the deep end of domestic deposits (PDF 517.76 KB)
Jed Armstrong; Nicholas Mulligan
Diving in the deep end of domestic deposits (PDF 517.76 KB)
AN2017/04
Does past inflation predict the future?
Chris McDonald
Does past inflation predict the future? (PDF 443.14 KB)
Chris McDonald
Does past inflation predict the future? (PDF 443.14 KB)
AN2017/03
Revisiting the wealth effect on consumption in New Zealand
Martin Wong
Revisiting the Wealth Effect on Consumption in New Zealand (PDF 465.48 KB)
Martin Wong
Revisiting the Wealth Effect on Consumption in New Zealand (PDF 465.48 KB)
AN2017/02
Evaluating alternative monthly house price measures for New Zealand
Jed Armstrong; Ashley Dunstan; Tobias Irrcher
Evaluating alternative monthly house price measures for New Zealand (PDF 1.53 MB)
Jed Armstrong; Ashley Dunstan; Tobias Irrcher
Evaluating alternative monthly house price measures for New Zealand (PDF 1.53 MB)
AN2017/01
The role of non-participants in labour market dynamics
Jed Armstrong; Özer Karagedikli
The role of non-participants in labour market dynamics (PDF 1.22 MB)
Jed Armstrong; Özer Karagedikli
The role of non-participants in labour market dynamics (PDF 1.22 MB)
AN2016/07
Short-term risk premiums and policy rate expectations in the United States
Leo Krippner; Michael Callaghan
Short-term risk premiums and policy rate expectations in the United States (PDF 334.12 KB)
Leo Krippner; Michael Callaghan
Short-term risk premiums and policy rate expectations in the United States (PDF 334.12 KB)
AN2016/06
Testing an Interpretation of Core Inflation Measures in New Zealand
Güneş Kamber; Benjamin Wong
Testing an Interpretation of Core Inflation Measures in New Zealand (PDF 1.45 MB)
Güneş Kamber; Benjamin Wong
Testing an Interpretation of Core Inflation Measures in New Zealand (PDF 1.45 MB)
AN2016/05
The Impact of Commodity Price Movements on the New Zealand Economy
Güneş Kamber; Gabriela Nodari; Benjamin Wong
The Impact of Commodity Price Movements on the New Zealand Economy (PDF 1.2 MB)
Güneş Kamber; Gabriela Nodari; Benjamin Wong
The Impact of Commodity Price Movements on the New Zealand Economy (PDF 1.2 MB)
AN2016/04
Developing a labour utilisation composite index for New Zealand
Jed Armstrong; Güneş Kamber; Özer Karagedikli
Developing a labour utilisation composite index for New Zealand (PDF 1.23 MB)
Jed Armstrong; Güneş Kamber; Özer Karagedikli
Developing a labour utilisation composite index for New Zealand (PDF 1.23 MB)
AN2016/03
AN2016/02
Why the drivers of migration matter for the labour market
Jed Armstrong; Chris McDonald
Why the drivers of migration matter for the labour market (PDF 1.2 MB)
Jed Armstrong; Chris McDonald
Why the drivers of migration matter for the labour market (PDF 1.2 MB)
AN2016/01
AN2015/08
AN2015/07
El Niño and its impact on the New Zealand economy
Amy Wood; Dean Ford
El Niño and its impact on the New Zealand economy (PDF 765.21 KB)
Amy Wood; Dean Ford
El Niño and its impact on the New Zealand economy (PDF 765.21 KB)
AN2015/06
AN2015/05
Estimating New Zealand’s neutral interest rate
Adam Richardson; Rebecca Williams
Estimating New Zealand’s neutral interest rate (PDF 457.06 KB)
Adam Richardson; Rebecca Williams
Estimating New Zealand’s neutral interest rate (PDF 457.06 KB)
AN2015/04
AN2015/03
Can global economic conditions explain low New Zealand inflation?
Adam Richardson
Can global economic conditions explain low New Zealand inflation? (PDF 422.34 KB)
Adam Richardson
Can global economic conditions explain low New Zealand inflation? (PDF 422.34 KB)
AN2015/02
Vulnerability of new mortgage borrowers prior to the introduction of the LVR speed limit: Insights from the Household Economic Survey
Ashley Dunstan; Hayden Skilling
Vulnerability of new mortgage borrowers prior to the introduction of the LVR speed limit: Insights from the Household Economic Survey (PDF 383.74 KB)
Ashley Dunstan; Hayden Skilling
Vulnerability of new mortgage borrowers prior to the introduction of the LVR speed limit: Insights from the Household Economic Survey (PDF 383.74 KB)
AN2015/01
The Reserve Bank's method of estimating "potential output"
Ashley Lienert; David Gillmore
The Reserve Bank's method of estimating "potential output" (PDF 533.95 KB)
Ashley Lienert; David Gillmore
The Reserve Bank's method of estimating "potential output" (PDF 533.95 KB)
AN2014/08
Design Choices in Central Clearing: Issues Facing Small Advanced Economies
Edwin Budding; David Murphy
Design Choices in Central Clearing: Issues Facing Small Advanced Economies (PDF 1.21 MB)
Edwin Budding; David Murphy
Design Choices in Central Clearing: Issues Facing Small Advanced Economies (PDF 1.21 MB)
AN2014/07
Monetary Policy and Funding Spreads
Anella Munro; Benjamin Wong
Monetary Policy and Funding Spreads (PDF 745.24 KB)
Anella Munro; Benjamin Wong
Monetary Policy and Funding Spreads (PDF 745.24 KB)
AN2014/06
Economic linkages between New Zealand and China
Ross Kendall
Economic linkages between New Zealand and China (PDF 453.05 KB)
Ross Kendall
Economic linkages between New Zealand and China (PDF 453.05 KB)
AN2014/05
AN2014/04
'N Sync: how do countries' economies move together?
James Graham; Amy Wood
'N Sync: how do countries' economies move together? (PDF 1.44 MB)
James Graham; Amy Wood
'N Sync: how do countries' economies move together? (PDF 1.44 MB)
AN2014/03
AN2014/02
Structural adjustment in New Zealand since the commodity boom
Daan Steenkamp
Structural adjustment in New Zealand since the commodity boom (PDF 492.73 KB)
Daan Steenkamp
Structural adjustment in New Zealand since the commodity boom (PDF 492.73 KB)
AN2014/01
Exchange rate and commodity price pass-through in New Zealand
Miles Parker; Benjamin Wong
Exchange rate and commodity price pass-through in New Zealand (PDF 851.51 KB)
Miles Parker; Benjamin Wong
Exchange rate and commodity price pass-through in New Zealand (PDF 851.51 KB)
AN2013/11
AN2013/10
AN2013/09
AN2013/08
What in the world moves New Zealand bond yields?
Michelle Lewis; Lauren Rosborough
What in the world moves New Zealand bond yields? (PDF 608.17 KB)
Michelle Lewis; Lauren Rosborough
What in the world moves New Zealand bond yields? (PDF 608.17 KB)
AN2013/07
Neutral interest rates in the post-crisis period
Willy Chetwin; Amy Wood
Neutral interest rates in the post-crisis period (PDF 696.04 KB)
Willy Chetwin; Amy Wood
Neutral interest rates in the post-crisis period (PDF 696.04 KB)
AN2013/06
AN2013/05
Estimating the impacts of restrictions on high LVR lending
Chris Bloor; Chris McDonald
Estimating the impacts of restrictions on high LVR lending (PDF 372.01 KB)
Chris Bloor; Chris McDonald
Estimating the impacts of restrictions on high LVR lending (PDF 372.01 KB)
AN2013/04
Estimated Taylor Rules updated for the post-crisis period
Ross Kendall; Tim Ng
Estimated Taylor Rules updated for the post-crisis period (PDF 2.08 MB)
Ross Kendall; Tim Ng
Estimated Taylor Rules updated for the post-crisis period (PDF 2.08 MB)
AN2013/03
New Zealand's short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility: drivers and policy implications
Willy Chetwin; Tim Ng; Daan Steenkamp
New Zealand's short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility: drivers and policy implications (PDF 643.66 KB)
Willy Chetwin; Tim Ng; Daan Steenkamp
New Zealand's short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility: drivers and policy implications (PDF 643.66 KB)
AN2013/02
Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand
Güneş Kamber; Chris McDonald; Gael Price
Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand (PDF 3.43 MB)
Güneş Kamber; Chris McDonald; Gael Price
Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand (PDF 3.43 MB)
AN2013/01
AN2012/12
Market perceptions of exchange rate risk
Michelle Lewis
Market perceptions of exchange rate risk (PDF 864.92 KB)
Michelle Lewis
Market perceptions of exchange rate risk (PDF 864.92 KB)
AN2012/11
Building a picture of New Zealand manufacturing
Gael Price
Building a picture of New Zealand manufacturing (PDF 233.08 KB)
Gael Price
Building a picture of New Zealand manufacturing (PDF 233.08 KB)
AN2012/10
Modelling New Zealand mortgage interest rates
Enzo Cassino
Modelling New Zealand mortgage interest rates (PDF 1002.36 KB)
Enzo Cassino
Modelling New Zealand mortgage interest rates (PDF 1002.36 KB)
AN2012/09
Do actual and/or expected OCR changes affect the New Zealand dollar?
Jason Wong; Bevan Cook
Do actual and/or expected OCR changes affect the New Zealand dollar? (PDF 387.07 KB)
Jason Wong; Bevan Cook
Do actual and/or expected OCR changes affect the New Zealand dollar? (PDF 387.07 KB)
AN2012/08
Extending the Reserve Bank's macroeconomic balance model of the exchange rate
James Graham; Daan Steenkamp
Extending the Reserve Bank's macroeconomic balance model of the exchange rate (PDF 480.3 KB)
James Graham; Daan Steenkamp
Extending the Reserve Bank's macroeconomic balance model of the exchange rate (PDF 480.3 KB)
AN2012/07
AN2012/06
Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one
Rebecca Williams; David Gillmore; Nicolas Groshenny
Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one (PDF 387.18 KB)
Rebecca Williams; David Gillmore; Nicolas Groshenny
Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one (PDF 387.18 KB)
AN2012/05
AN2012/04
In search of greener pastures - improving the REINZ farm price index
Ashley Dunstan; Chris McDonald
In search of greener pastures - improving the REINZ farm price index (PDF 141.53 KB)
Ashley Dunstan; Chris McDonald
In search of greener pastures - improving the REINZ farm price index (PDF 141.53 KB)
AN2012/03
Currency intervention: the profitability of some recent international experiences
Enzo Cassino; Michelle Lewis
Currency intervention: the profitability of some recent international experiences (PDF 603.07 KB)
Enzo Cassino; Michelle Lewis
Currency intervention: the profitability of some recent international experiences (PDF 603.07 KB)
AN2012/02
Kiwi drivers - the New Zealand dollar experience
Chris McDonald
Kiwi drivers - the New Zealand dollar experience (PDF 1.41 MB)
Chris McDonald
Kiwi drivers - the New Zealand dollar experience (PDF 1.41 MB)
AN2012/01
House price expectations of households - A preliminary analysis of new survey data
Graham Howard; Özer Karagedikli
House price expectations of households - A preliminary analysis of new survey data (PDF 321.32 KB)
Graham Howard; Özer Karagedikli
House price expectations of households - A preliminary analysis of new survey data (PDF 321.32 KB)
AN2011/01
The macroeconomic impact of the Rugby World Cup
Adam Richardson
The macroeconomic impact of the Rugby World Cup (PDF 287.12 KB)
Adam Richardson
The macroeconomic impact of the Rugby World Cup (PDF 287.12 KB)