Research and publications Analytical Notes

Analytical Notes

The Analytical Notes series encompasses a range of background papers prepared by Reserve Bank staff.

Unless otherwise stated, views expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Reserve Bank.

Latest Edition
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Labour market cycles across different groups: What does history tell us? Part II: Age and sex
Shaun Markham; Murat Özbilgin; Finn Robinson
AN2022/04, Analytical Note, 31/03/2022
Labour market cycles across different groups: What does history tell us? Part II: Age and sex (PDF 1022.67 KB)
Chronology of Analytical Notes
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AN2021/08
Measures for Assessing the sustainability of house prices in New Zealand
Matthew Brunton
 Analytical Note: Measures for Assessing the sustainability of house prices in New Zealand (PDF 1.27 MB)
This Note describes a range of metrics that can be used as indicators of whether current house prices have deviated from sustainable levels. This builds on literature where the value of houses is estimated using user-cost models. Research on understanding sustainable house prices is ongoing and this framework will be refined further over time.
AN2021/07
Monetary Policy Pass-Through to Mortgage Rates
Severin Bernhard; James Graham; Shaun Markham
 Monetary Policy Pass-Through to Mortgage Rates (PDF 1.43 MB)
This Note examines how monetary policy passes through to mortgage interest rates across the economy and at the individual bank level in the short and medium-term.
AN2021/06
Research on the impact of lower interest rates on wealth and income
Gulnara Nolan
 The household cash flow effects of low interest rates in New Zealand (PDF 383.86 KB)
The Reserve Bank is carrying out a wide range of research about the different ways changes in interest rates could affect the distribution of wealth and income in New Zealand. Each research paper is aimed at giving the bank (and other decision-makers) parts of the jigsaw puzzle, to help our understanding, rather than a complete picture all at once.
AN2021/05
Low interest rates - who are the winners and losers?
Jinny Leong
 An overview of the distributional effects of monetary policy (PDF 981.28 KB)
There are winners and losers when interest rates are cut, but the international evidence is not clear that this always means the rich get richer and the poor are worse off.
AN2021/04
Māori Financial Services Institutions and Arrangements
Roanna McLeod; Victor Lam
 Māori Financial Services Institutions and Arrangements (PDF 585.72 KB)
In this paper, we aim to examine whether the financial system is adequately meeting the needs of all New Zealanders, in terms of financial inclusion, literacy, and security, with a particular focus on the Māori community. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a better understanding of how the Māori economic world fits into the wider financial system that the Reserve Bank oversees.
AN2021/03
Minding our business: Drivers of New Zealand business investment over the last 20 years
Julia Ratcliffe; Eric Tong
 Minding our business: Drivers of New Zealand business investment over the last 20 years (PDF 1019.24 KB)
This Analytical Note aims to understand the drivers of business investment in New Zealand over the past 20 years.
AN2021/02
Funding and reserving Canterbury earthquake insurance claims
Robert Cole
 Funding and reserving Canterbury earthquake insurance claims (PDF 1.03 MB)
The 2010-11 Canterbury earthquakes are by far the most costly insurance event in New Zealand’s history with estimated property insurance claims costs of around $38 billion, and remain one of the most significant globally.
AN2021/01
Down to business: Which QSBO measures are the best at forecasting?
Hamish Fitchett; Finn Robinson
 Down to business: Which QSBO measures are the best at forecasting? (PDF 1.5 MB)
We investigate which measures from the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) are best at forecasting macroeconomic variables in New Zealand over the past decade.
AN2020/08
Monetary policy and regional unemployment
Shaun Markham
 Monetary policy and regional unemployment (PDF 1.19 MB)
AN2020/07
Vacancies, unemployment and labour market slack in New Zealand
Finn Robinson
 Vacancies, unemployment and labour market slack in New Zealand (PDF 1.45 MB)
AN2020/06
Has the Reserve Bank responded differently to upturns and downturns in inflation and economic activity?
Severin Bernhard; Jamie Culling; Punnoose Jacob
 Has the Reserve Bank responded differently to upturns and downturns in inflation and economic activity? (PDF 986.16 KB)
AN2020/05
Regional Labour Market Spillovers
Cameron Haworth
 Regional Labour Market spillovers (PDF 1.13 MB)
This analytical note examines how unemployment in one region could spill over and influence unemployment in other regions.
AN2020/04
Economic impacts of COVID-19 containment measures
Tom Stannard; Gregorius Steven; Chris McDonald
 Economic impacts of COVID-19 containment measures (PDF 546.28 KB)
Containment measures are limiting the spread of COVID-19 and saving lives. It has come at a cost, however, of reduced economy activity. This paper outlines our estimates of the impact on GDP from each of the COVID-19 alert levels.
AN2020/03
Employment and hours worked adjustment in New Zealand's labour market
Jamie Culling; Finn Robinson
 Employment and hours worked adjustment in New Zealand's labour market (PDF 1.23 MB)
AN2020/02
Using job transitions data as a labour market indicator
Christopher Ball; Adam Richardson; Thomas van Florenstein Mulder
 Using job transitions data as a labour market indicator (PDF 718.89 KB)
AN2020/01
GDP Plus: An Economic Activity Indicator for New Zealand
Michael Callaghan; Thomas van Florenstein Mulder
 GDP Plus: An economic activity indicator for New Zealand (PDF 978.59 KB)
AN2019/11
Low wage growth and job-to-job transitions: Evidence from administrative data in New Zealand
Christopher Ball; Nicolas Groshenny; Özer Karagedikli; Murat Özbilgin; Finn Robinson
 Low wage growth and job-to-job transitions: Evidence from administrative data in New Zealand (PDF 1005.68 KB)
AN2019/10
Have the effects of monetary policy on inflation and economic activity in New Zealand changed over time?
Jamie Culling; Punnoose Jacob; Adam Richardson; Evelyn Truong; Tugrul Vehbi
 Have the effects of monetary policy on inflation and economic activity in New Zealand changed over time? (PDF 1.01 MB)
AN2019/09
Evaluating indicators of labour market capacity in New Zealand
Jamie Culling; Gael Price; Finn Robinson
 Evaluating indicators of labour market capacity in New Zealand (PDF 1.15 MB)
AN2019/08
Suite as! Augmenting the Reserve Bank’s output gap indicator suite
Punnoose Jacob; Finn Robinson
 Suite as! Augmenting the Reserve Bank’s output gap indicator suite (PDF 2.06 MB)
AN2019/07
Have the LVR restrictions improved the resilience of the banking system?
Chris Bloor; Bruce Lu
 Have the LVR restrictions improved the resilience of the banking system? (PDF 1.09 MB)
AN2019/06
The flattening of the Phillips curve: Rounding up the suspects
Punnoose Jacob; Thomas van Florenstein Mulder
 The flattening of the Phillips curve: Rounding up the suspects (PDF 512.02 KB)
AN2019/05
Effective Monetary Stimulus: Measuring the stance of monetary policy in New Zealand
Michael Callaghan; Jamie Culling; Adam Richardson
 Effective Monetary Stimulus: Measuring the stance of monetary policy in New Zealand (PDF 1.45 MB)
AN2019/04
Mixed in New Zealand: Nowcasting Labour Markets with MIDAS
Özer Karagedikli; Murat Özbilgin
 Mixed in New Zealand: Nowcasting Labour Markets with MIDAS (PDF 1.23 MB)
AN2019/03
Forecasting with a Global VAR model
Thomas van Florenstein Mulder; Tugrul Vehbi
 Forecasting with a Global VAR model (PDF 550.76 KB)
AN2019/02
Expectations and the term premium in New Zealand long-term interest rates
Michael Callaghan
 Expectations and the term premium in New Zealand long-term interest rates (PDF 1.81 MB)
AN2019/01
Solvency trends for New Zealand licensed insurers: 2013 - 2018
Robert Cole
 Solvency trends for New Zealand licensed insurers: 2013 to 2018 (PDF 922.91 KB)
AN2018/11
Estimated policy rules for different monetary regimes: Flexible inflation targeting versus a dual mandate
Punnoose Jacob; Amber Wadsworth
 Estimated policy rules for different monetary regimes: Flexible inflation targeting versus a dual mandate (PDF 451.45 KB)
AN2018/10
Ageing is a drag: Projecting labour force participation in New Zealand
Michael Callaghan; Jamie Culling; Finn Robinson
 Ageing is a drag: Projecting labour force participation in New Zealand (PDF 3.57 MB)
AN2018/09
Job-to-job flows and inflation: Evidence from administrative data in New Zealand
Özer Karagedikli
 Job to job flows and inflation: evidence from administrative data in New Zealand (PDF 571.13 KB)
AN2018/08
A Note on Construction Worker Migration to New Zealand 1962 - 2018
Andrew Coleman; Özer Karagedikli
 A Note on Construction Worker Migration to New Zealand 1962-2018 (PDF 294.63 KB)
AN2018/07
Measuring Market Discipline in New Zealand
Cameron Haworth; Liam Gillies; Tobias Irrcher
 Measuring market discipline in New Zealand (PDF 1.48 MB)
AN2018/06
Mortgagor Vulnerability and Deposit Affordability in New Zealand before and after the Loan-to-Value Restrictions
Karam Shaar
 Mortgagor Vulnerability and Deposit Affordability in New Zealand before and after the Loan-to-Value Restrictions (PDF 1.2 MB)
AN2018/05
Quantifying fiscal multipliers in New Zealand: The evidence from SVAR models
Anna Hamer-Adams; Martin Wong
 Quantifying fiscal multipliers in New Zealand: the evidence from SVAR models (PDF 882.6 KB)
AN2018/04
Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand
Punnoose Jacob; Martin Wong
 Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand (PDF 810.77 KB)
AN2018/03
Reassessing the information content of the Commitments of Traders positioning data for exchange rate changes
Nicholas Mulligan; Daan Steenkamp
 Reassessing the information content of the Commitments of Traders positioning data for exchange rate changes (PDF 4.32 MB)
AN2018/02
Funding cost pass-through to mortgage rates
Bevan Cook; Daan Steenkamp
 Funding cost pass-through to mortgage rates (PDF 600.92 KB)
AN2018/01
Measuring uncertainty and its impact on the New Zealand economy
Amy Rice; Tugrul Vehbi; Benjamin Wong
 Measuring uncertainty and its impact on the New Zealand economy (PDF 1.29 MB)
AN2015/08
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s output gap indicator suite and its real-time properties
Jed Armstrong
 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's output gap indicator suite and its real-time properties (PDF 1.33 MB)
AN2015/07
El Niño and its impact on the New Zealand economy
Amy Wood; Dean Ford
 El Niño and its impact on the New Zealand economy (PDF 765.21 KB)
AN2015/06
A deeper look at recent housing market trends: insights from unit-record data
Hayden Skilling
 A deeper look at recent housing market trends: insights from unit-record data (PDF 339.87 KB)
AN2015/05
Estimating New Zealand’s neutral interest rate
Adam Richardson; Rebecca Williams
 Estimating New Zealand’s neutral interest rate (PDF 457.06 KB)
AN2015/04
Constructing cross country estimates of relative industry MFP levels
Daan Steenkamp
 Constructing cross country estimates of relative industry MFP levels (PDF 1.54 MB)
AN2015/03
Can global economic conditions explain low New Zealand inflation?
Adam Richardson
 Can global economic conditions explain low New Zealand inflation? (PDF 422.34 KB)
AN2015/02
Vulnerability of new mortgage borrowers prior to the introduction of the LVR speed limit: Insights from the Household Economic Survey
Ashley Dunstan; Hayden Skilling
 Vulnerability of new mortgage borrowers prior to the introduction of the LVR speed limit: Insights from the Household Economic Survey (PDF 383.74 KB)
AN2015/01
The Reserve Bank's method of estimating "potential output"
Ashley Lienert; David Gillmore
 The Reserve Bank's method of estimating "potential output" (PDF 533.95 KB)
AN2013/11
A closer look at some of the supply and demand factors influencing residential property markets
Elizabeth Watson
 A closer look at some of the supply and demand factors influencing residential property markets (PDF 623.87 KB)
AN2013/10
Migration and the housing market
Chris McDonald
 Migration and the housing market (PDF 441.66 KB)
AN2013/09
Fresh perspectives on unobservable variables: Data decomposition of the Kalman smoother
Nicholas Sander
 Fresh perspectives on unobservable variables: Data decomposition of the Kalman smoother (PDF 1.78 MB)
AN2013/08
What in the world moves New Zealand bond yields?
Michelle Lewis; Lauren Rosborough
 What in the world moves New Zealand bond yields? (PDF 608.17 KB)
AN2013/07
Neutral interest rates in the post-crisis period
Willy Chetwin; Amy Wood
 Neutral interest rates in the post-crisis period (PDF 696.04 KB)
AN2013/06
Some revisions to the sectoral factor model of core inflation
Gael Price
 Some revisions to the sectoral factor model of core inflation (PDF 355.69 KB)
AN2013/05
Estimating the impacts of restrictions on high LVR lending
Chris Bloor; Chris McDonald
 Estimating the impacts of restrictions on high LVR lending (PDF 372.01 KB)
AN2013/04
Estimated Taylor Rules updated for the post-crisis period
Ross Kendall; Tim Ng
 Estimated Taylor Rules updated for the post-crisis period (PDF 2.08 MB)
AN2013/03
New Zealand's short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility: drivers and policy implications
Willy Chetwin; Tim Ng; Daan Steenkamp
 New Zealand's short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility: drivers and policy implications (PDF 643.66 KB)
AN2013/02
Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand
Güneş Kamber; Chris McDonald; Gael Price
 Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand (PDF 3.43 MB)
AN2013/01
Productivity and the New Zealand dollar - Balassa-Samuelson tests on sectoral data
Daan Steenkamp
 Productivity and the New Zealand dollar - Balassa-Samuelson tests on sectoral data (PDF 448.9 KB)
AN2012/12
Market perceptions of exchange rate risk
Michelle Lewis
 Market perceptions of exchange rate risk (PDF 864.92 KB)
AN2012/11
Building a picture of New Zealand manufacturing
Gael Price
 Building a picture of New Zealand manufacturing (PDF 233.08 KB)
AN2012/10
Modelling New Zealand mortgage interest rates
Enzo Cassino
 Modelling New Zealand mortgage interest rates (PDF 1002.36 KB)
AN2012/09
Do actual and/or expected OCR changes affect the New Zealand dollar?
Jason Wong; Bevan Cook
 Do actual and/or expected OCR changes affect the New Zealand dollar? (PDF 387.07 KB)
AN2012/08
Extending the Reserve Bank's macroeconomic balance model of the exchange rate
James Graham; Daan Steenkamp
 Extending the Reserve Bank's macroeconomic balance model of the exchange rate (PDF 480.3 KB)
AN2012/07
Risk, return, and beyond - A conceptual analysis of some factors influencing New Zealanders' investment decisions
Elizabeth Watson
 Risk, return, and beyond - A conceptual analysis of some factors influencing New Zealanders' investment decisions (PDF 290.78 KB)
AN2012/06
Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one
Rebecca Williams; David Gillmore; Nicolas Groshenny
 Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one (PDF 387.18 KB)
AN2012/05
A model for interest rates near the zero lower bound - An overview and discussion
Leo Krippner
 A model for interest rates near the zero lower bound - An overview and discussion (PDF 324.32 KB)
AN2012/04
In search of greener pastures - improving the REINZ farm price index
Ashley Dunstan; Chris McDonald
 In search of greener pastures - improving the REINZ farm price index (PDF 141.53 KB)
AN2012/03
Currency intervention: the profitability of some recent international experiences
Enzo Cassino; Michelle Lewis
 Currency intervention: the profitability of some recent international experiences (PDF 603.07 KB)
AN2012/02
Kiwi drivers - the New Zealand dollar experience
Chris McDonald
 Kiwi drivers - the New Zealand dollar experience (PDF 1.41 MB)
AN2012/01
House price expectations of households - A preliminary analysis of new survey data
Graham Howard; Özer Karagedikli
 House price expectations of households - A preliminary analysis of new survey data (PDF 321.32 KB)
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