Economic projections at a glance: how the RBNZ forecasts the future
Each quarterly Monetary Policy Statement
that the Reserve Bank releases includes the Bank’s projections (or forecasts) for the future. These forecasts paint a picture of where the Bank economists think the New Zealand economy
and interest rates are heading over the next few years.
What goes into creating the RBNZ's forecasting picture?
- Information from regular discussions with a variety of businesses across NZ
- Economic and financial data
- Data from the Bank's economic modelling, combined with the judgement and experience of the Bank economists
- Current news and developments at home and around the world
- Information from other departments in the Reserve Bank
- Appointed business sector experts consulted as external advisers
- Information from other Government agencies
The projections help to explain what the Reserve Bank thinks is happening within the NZ economy and the economic risks that may be ahead. It provides policymakers, businesses and households with an economic sketch of the forces likely to be at play in the future shaping the economic environment ahead of us.
Learn more about forecasting in this Reserve Bank speech.
Learn more about monetary policy.
Learn how the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement ties together the Reserve Bank’s thinking and research to provide a useful snapshot of our economy.