Supporting information:
Historical data (Excel spreadsheet)Series description – Household expectations survey (Table J5)
The Reserve Bank contracts a survey company to ask respondents questions relating to their expectations of inflation and house prices.
The data from 1995 through to September 2008 is sourced from ACNielsen’s Marketscope telephone survey of 1000 people aged 15 years and over. From December 2008 the survey is sourced from UMR Research’s nationwide omnibus telephone survey of 750 people aged 18 years and over.
We are satisfied that the effect of the sample differences on the survey results is minor, but the following two factors should be kept in mind when interpreting movements in figures between the December 2008/March 2009 results and previous surveys. (1) The smaller sample implies a slightly higher margin of error in the survey results (±3.6% at the 95% confidence level). (2) Although a relatively small subgroup, the 15-17 age group has tended to have higher expectations than the full sample mean. However, our tests have shown the exclusion of this group has negligible impact on the figures.
A. Inflation
“What is your understanding of the term inflation?”
If respondents are able to provide an answer, they are then asked:
1. Current inflation perceptions:
“Based on your own opinions and what you've seen and heard, what do you think the inflation figure is now? “
2. Expected change in short term inflation:
“In 12 months time, do you expect the inflation figure to be higher,
lower or the same?”
(NB. Net per cent expecting higher inflation
refers to the percentage expecting higher inflation, minus the percentage
expecting lower inflation.)
3. Short-term expected inflation:
“What do you think the actual figure will be in 12 months time?”
4. Medium-term expected inflation:
“What do you think the actual figure will be in five years time?”
B. House price inflation
5. Expected short-term change:
“In one year's time do you think house prices overall will have increased, decreased or stayed the same compared to now?”
6. Expected short-term house price inflation:
“By what percentage do you think they will have increased or decreased?”
