Series description – Household inflation expectations survey (Table J5)

The Reserve Bank contracts a survey company to ask respondents three questions relating to inflation expectations.

The data from 1995 through to September 2008 is sourced from ACNielsen’s Marketscope telephone survey of 1000 people aged 15 years and over. From December 2008 the survey is sourced from UMR Research’s nationwide omnibus telephone survey of 750 people aged 18 years and over.

We are satisfied that the effect of the sample differences on the survey results is minor, but the following two factors should be kept in mind when interpreting movements in figures between the December 2008/March 2009 results and previous surveys. (1) The smaller sample implies a slightly higher margin of error in the survey results (±3.6% at the 95% confidence level). (2) Although a relatively small subgroup, the 15-17 age group has tended to have higher expectations than the full sample mean. However, our tests have shown the exclusion of this group has negligible impact on the figures.

Perception of current inflation

“Based on your own opinions and what you’ve seen and heard, what do you think the inflation figure is now?”

Expectation of future rise or fall in inflation

“In twelve months time do you expect the inflation figure to be higher lower or the same?”

Expectation of the inflation rate in one years time

“What do you think the actual figure will be in twelve months time?”