Supporting information:
Historical data (Excel spreadsheet)J5 Household expectations survey
The Reserve Bank sponsors a market research company to ask members of the public questions relating to their expectations of inflation and house prices. For description of sources and methods please refer to the series description/background notes.
A. Inflation
“What is your understanding of the term inflation?”
If respondents are able to provide an answer, they are then asked:
1. Current inflation perceptions:
“Based on your own opinions and what you've seen and heard, what do you think the inflation figure is now? “
2. Expected change in short term inflation:
“In 12 months time, do you expect the inflation figure to be higher,
lower or the same?”
(NB. Net per cent expecting higher inflation
refers to the percentage expecting higher inflation, minus the percentage
expecting lower inflation.)
3. Short-term expected inflation:
“What do you think the actual figure will be in 12 months time?”
4. Medium-term expected inflation:
“What do you think the actual figure will be in five years time?”
|
|
|
Median current inflation |
Mean current inflation |
Net percent expecting higher inflation |
Median expected inflation (1-year) |
Mean expected inflation (1-year) |
Median expected inflation (5-year) |
Mean expected inflation (5year) |
|
2008 |
Feb |
3.5 |
3.8 |
44.0 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
|
|
|
|
May |
3.6 |
4.6 |
45.0 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
|
|
|
|
Aug |
4.0 |
4.6 |
28.0 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
|
|
|
|
Nov |
4.0 |
4.5 |
23.0 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
|
2009 |
Feb |
3.5 |
3.8 |
20.0 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
|
|
May |
3.0 |
3.5 |
26.0 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
|
|
Aug |
3.0 |
3.3 |
39.0 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
|
|
Nov |
3.0 |
3.2 |
44.0 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
4.3 |
|
2010 |
Feb |
3.0 |
3.2 |
40.5 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
4.3 |
|
|
May |
3.0 |
3.4 |
40.7 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
4.6 |
|
|
Aug |
3.0 |
3.4 |
50.3 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
|
|
Nov |
3.0 |
3.1 |
47.1 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
|
2011 |
Feb |
4.0 |
3.9 |
48.8 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
|
|
May |
4.0 |
4.1 |
37.5 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
3.0 |
4.4 |
|
|
Aug |
4.0 |
4.3 |
41.6 |
4.0 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
|
|
Nov |
3.5 |
3.8 |
31.6 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
B. House price inflation
5. Expected short-term change:
“In one year's time do you think house prices overall will have increased, decreased or stayed the same compared to now?”
6. Expected short-term house price inflation:
“By what percentage do you think they will have increased or decreased?”
|
|
|
Median house price inflation in one year’s time[1] |
Mean house price inflation in one-year’s time1 |
Net percent expecting higher house prices |
|
2011 |
May |
0.0 |
2.2 |
34.1 |
|
|
Aug |
0.0 |
2.7 |
40.4 |
|
|
Nov |
0.0 |
2.5 |
40.9 |
Last updated 22 November 2011
[1] A large number of respondents (over 40% of those who provided a numerical figure) expect there to have been no change in house prices in a year’s time. This has the effect of making both the mode – the most commonly held expectation – and the median – the middle value in the distribution – zero. The distribution is not symmetrical either, but is positively skewed (to the right), causing the divergence in these statistics.”
