Supporting information:
J5 Household expectations of inflation
The Reserve Bank sponsors a market research company to ask members of the public questions relating to their expectations of inflation. For description of sources and methods please refer to the series description/background notes.
1. Current inflation perceptions:
Based on your own opinions and what you've seen and heard, what do you think the inflation figure is now?
2. Expected change:
In 12 months time, do you expect the inflation figure to be higher, lower or
the same?
(NB. Net per cent expecting higher inflation refers to the
percentage expecting higher inflation, minus the percentage expecting lower
inflation.)
3. Expected inflation:
What do you think the actual figure will be in 12 months time?
**********************************************************
J5 - SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS OF INFLATION
|
|
|
Median Current Inflation |
Mean Current Inflation |
Net Percent Expecting Higher Inflation |
Median Expected Inflation |
Mean Expected Inflation |
|
1995 |
Feb |
2.8 |
3.6 |
55.0 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
|
|
May |
3.0 |
3.6 |
42.0 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
|
|
Aug |
n/a |
3.6 |
33.0 |
n/a |
4.1 |
|
|
Nov |
n/a |
3.7 |
35.0 |
n/a |
4.2 |
|
1996 |
Feb |
2.5 |
3.3 |
39.0 |
3.0 |
3.8 |
|
|
May |
2.5 |
2.9 |
46.0 |
3.0 |
3.6 |
|
|
Aug |
2.5 |
3.3 |
48.0 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
|
|
Nov |
2.5 |
3.1 |
43.0 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
|
1997 |
Feb |
2.6 |
3.1 |
48.0 |
3.0 |
3.7 |
|
|
May |
2.5 |
3.2 |
43.0 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
|
|
Aug |
2.5 |
3.0 |
52.0 |
3.0 |
3.7 |
|
|
Nov |
3.0 |
3.3 |
54.0 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
|
1998 |
Feb |
2.5 |
3.3 |
50.0 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
|
|
May |
2.5 |
3.3 |
49.0 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
|
|
Aug |
2.5 |
3.4 |
38.0 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
|
|
Nov |
2.0 |
2.9 |
37.0 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
|
1999 |
Feb |
2.0 |
2.7 |
41.0 |
2.5 |
3.3 |
|
|
May |
2.0 |
2.3 |
50.0 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
|
|
Aug |
2.0 |
2.7 |
49.0 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
|
|
Nov |
2.5 |
3.1 |
53.0 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
|
2000 |
Feb |
2.5 |
2.9 |
56.0 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
|
|
May |
2.5 |
3.1 |
53.0 |
3.0 |
3.8 |
|
|
Aug |
3.0 |
3.3 |
60.0 |
3.3 |
4.1 |
|
|
Nov |
3.0 |
3.7 |
41.0 |
4.0 |
4.4 |
|
2001 |
Feb |
3.2 |
3.9 |
38.0 |
3.5 |
4.4 |
|
|
May |
3.0 |
3.2 |
38.0 |
3.0 |
3.7 |
|
|
Aug |
3.0 |
3.4 |
43.0 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
|
|
Nov |
3.0 |
3.6 |
43.0 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
|
2002 |
Feb |
3.0 |
3.3 |
44.0 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
|
|
May |
3.0 |
3.2 |
47.0 |
3.0 |
3.8 |
|
|
Aug |
3.0 |
3.3 |
43.0 |
3.2 |
3.8 |
|
|
Nov |
3.0 |
3.5 |
39.0 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
|
2003 |
Feb |
3.0 |
3.2 |
50.0 |
3.0 |
3.8 |
|
|
May |
3.0 |
3.3 |
40.0 |
3.0 |
3.8 |
|
|
Aug |
2.5 |
2.9 |
41.0 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
|
|
Nov |
2.5 |
3.0 |
45.0 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
|
2004 |
Feb |
3.0 |
3.3 |
50.0 |
3.1 |
3.9 |
|
|
May |
2.8 |
3.2 |
54.0 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
|
|
Aug |
3.0 |
3.6 |
55.0 |
3.5 |
4.4 |
|
|
Nov |
3.0 |
3.7 |
42.0 |
3.3 |
4.1 |
|
2005 |
Feb |
3.0 |
3.4 |
42.0 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
|
|
May |
3.0 |
4.1 |
57.0 |
3.5 |
4.4 |
|
|
Aug |
3.0 |
3.5 |
52.0 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
|
|
Nov |
3.5 |
4.0 |
56.0 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
|
2006 |
Feb |
3.2 |
3.9 |
47.0 |
3.8 |
4.5 |
|
|
May |
3.2 |
4.0 |
62.0 |
4.0 |
4.7 |
|
|
Aug |
4.0 |
4.3 |
58.0 |
4.5 |
5.1 |
|
|
Nov |
3.4 |
3.9 |
44.0 |
4.0 |
4.4 |
|
2007 |
Feb |
3.0 |
3.8 |
51.0 |
3.5 |
4.3 |
|
|
May |
3.0 |
4.1 |
50.0 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
|
|
Aug |
3.5 |
4.2 |
53.0 |
4.0 |
4.9 |
|
|
Nov |
3.0 |
3.8 |
44.0 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
|
2008 |
Feb |
3.5 |
3.8 |
44.0 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
|
|
May |
3.6 |
4.6 |
45.0 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
|
|
Aug |
4.0 |
4.6 |
28.0 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
|
|
Nov |
4.0 |
4.5 |
23.0 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
|
2009 |
Feb |
3.5 |
3.8 |
20.0 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
|
|
May |
3.0 |
3.5 |
26.0 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
|
|
Aug |
3.0 |
3.3 |
39.0 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
|
|
Nov |
3.0 |
3.2 |
44.0 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
Last updated 24 November 2009
