Recent Reserve Bank discussion papers (with abstracts)
Reserve Bank discussion and research papers present the detailed scholarly research of staff economists and visiting scholars. The papers are published throughout the year mainly for academic and professional economists.
(NB. If you do not have the free Acrobat reader software necessary to read these discussion papers already installed, go to the Adobe website.)
Papers for 1998
G98/10
Price stability: some costs and benefits in New Zealand
Among the distortions generated by inflation, those caused by its interaction with taxation are particularly important. Due to the non-indexation of the tax system, inflation exacerbates the inefficiencies generated by taxation. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the welfare effects of these distortions in New Zealand. By using a stylised model of the New Zealand tax system, the tax burden on capital income is calculated for different values of the inflation rate. Following Feldstein (1997a, 1997b), the paper then estimates the welfare effects of going from 2 percent `true' inflation (net of measurement bias) to price stability. The benefits turn out to be about 0.4 percent of GDP, approximately half the size of those calculated by Feldstein for the US, the difference being mainly due to a less distortionary tax system. The permanent benefits are then compared with the one-off output loss that would be involved. As for the US, the result is supportive of price stability, but it does not hold for plausible values of some key parameters.
G98/9
Core inflation: concepts, uses and measurements
This paper reviews the concept of core inflation, focusing on the alternative interpretations of core inflation as the persistent or generalised element of inflation. The role of a core inflation measure in policy formulation, communication and accountability is also discussed. The paper also outlines and comments on alternative empirical approaches taken to measuring core inflation.
G98/8
Testing the predictive power of New Zealand bank bill futures rates
The hypothesis that New Zealand 90-day bank bill futures rates are an unbiased predictor of 90-day bank bill rates is tested by applying the single-equation method of Stock and Watson (1993) to quarterly data from 1989 to 1997. The results do not reject the unbiasedness hypothesis for the one and two-quarter-ahead horizons tested. However, the estimated residuals are found to contain significant serial correlation in both cases, which suggests that some degree of information inefficiency might exist. The relative forecasting performance of futures rates against the random-walk is also investigated for weekly horizons up to 26 weeks. The results indicate that futures rates outperform the random-walk over all horizons tested, with the improvement statistically significant for all horizons greater than 1 week.
G98/7
The Forecasting and Policy System: preparing economic projections
This paper outlines how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System (FPS) is used to prepare the quarterly economic projections. In addition to a very brief overview of the system, the paper focuses on four key issues. First, the current methodology for incorporating a time-varying equilibrium path for the economy is presented. Second, the process for building up the central scenario through the application of judgement is outlined. Third, the use of alternative scenarios for testing the implications of key assumptions embodied in the central scenario is discussed. Finally, the technique employed to examine the implications that unforseen shocks have for the projections is discussed.
G98/6
The Forecasting and Policy System: stochastic simulations of the core model
Uncertainty in applied macroeconomic policy analysis arises from three distinct sources. The first, often referred to as model uncertainty, arises because the models used for policy analysis are simple abstractions of the complex behavioural interactions that occur in an economy. The second source, denoted shock uncertainty, arises from unforeseen events that the analysis cannot explicitly factor in ex ante. Finally, starting-point uncertainty reflects the fact that given data lags and revisions, often it is difficult to assess the current state of the economy. This paper discusses the approach the Reserve Bank has taken to enable its Forecasting and Policy System (FPS) to quantify the implications that the typical level of shock uncertainty might be expected have on the analysis of alternative policy actions designed to achieve the objectives of monetary policy.
G98/5
The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues
The authors use monthly data from May 1973 to December 1991 to estimate a textbook version of the monetary model of the nominal exchange rate determination. They use a modified version of the Phillips and Loretan (1991) Two-Sided Dynamic Least Squares. This method accounts for the serial correlation in the residuals, the simultaneity, and cointegration among the regressors. The latter condition is consistent with the restriction that the system is homogeneous of degree zero in the money supply differential and the exchange rate. Razzak and Grennes show that most of the empirical problems known to be associated with monetary models can be ameliorated.
G98/4
Business cycle asymmetries and the nominal exchange rate regimes
This paper investigates differences in time series behaviour of real output and the price levels in seven countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) under alternative exchange rate systems. Quarterly data spanning the Bretton-Woods and the subsequent floating exchange rate regimes are used to test whether or not the cyclical fluctuations of output and price levels are symmetric. It is shown that the evidence of asymmetries depends on the prevailing nominal exchange rate regime and the method used to de-trend the data.
G98/3
The Forecasting and Policy System: demand-side satellite models
This paper presents three satellite models for the Forecasting and Policy System (FPS). Satellite models are used to disaggregate the projections generated by the core model into a more detailed profile. The household expenditure, exports, and business investment satellite models disaggregate the relevant macroeconomic variables by modelling the shares of each aggregate allocated to each expenditure item. The models are assessed by examining their dynamic properties in response to artificial shocks and their ability to track historical data.
G98/2
Productivity growth in New Zealand: economic reform and the convergence hypothesis
The recent productivity experience of the New Zealand economy is examined using a cyclically-adjusted or trend measure of Total Factor Productivity (TFP). On the basis of this measure, the results of estimating a leader-follower convergence relationship suggest that productivity in New Zealand has been converging to US levels through a process of technological diffusion. The evidence also tentatively suggests that the size of the steady-state gap in the levels of TFP between New Zealand and the US decreased in the early 1990s. Although the evidence presented here is encouraging, it should be interpreted with considerable caution given that the post-reform sample period is very short and the method used to measure the steady-state levels gap is preliminary.
G98/1
Determinants of New Zealand bond yields
This paper examines the driving factors of New Zealand bond yields over the 1988-1997 period. The results indicate that:
- the general analytical framework implied by the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) relation finds some support in the data.
- in the long run, short term real bond yields are related to US real bond yields, currency expectations and expectations of the future stance of domestic monetary policy vis a vis the stance offshore.
- long-term real bond yields are related to Australian real bond yields, currency expectations, inflation uncertainty and relative monetary policy expectations.
- in recent years, domestic bond yields have been more closely related to offshore yields suggesting increased integration between the domestic and international capital markets.
- increased perceptions of political risk appears to have played an important role in the rise in domestic long bond yields during the first half of 1996.
