Discussion Papers
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Reserve Bank discussion and research papers present the detailed scholarly research of staff economists and visiting scholars. The papers are published throughout the year mainly for academic and professional economists.
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2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997
Papers for 2011
DP2011/08 Foreign acquisition and the performance of New Zealand firms / By Richard Fabling and Lynda Sanderson, December 2011
DP2011/07 Forecasting house price inflation: a model combination approach / By Sarah Drought and Chris McDonald, October 2011
DP2011/06 Cyclical Changes in Firm Volatility / By Emmanuel De Veirman and Andrew Levin, November 2011
DP2011/05 Time-varying returns, intertemporal substitution and cyclical variation in consumption / By Emmanuel De Veirman and Ashley Dunstan, September 2011
DP2011/04 An estimated small open economy model with frictional unemployment / By Julien Albertini, Gunes Kamber and Michael Kirker, September 2011
DP2011/03 Evaluating density forecasts: model combination strategies versus the RBNZ / By Chris McDonald and Leif Anders Thorsrud, September 2011
DP2011/02 Fluctuations in the international prices of oil, dairy products, beef and lamb between 2000 and 2008: A review of market-specific demand and supply factors / By Phil Briggs, Carly Harker, Tim Ng and Aidan Yao, May 2011
DP2011/01 Any port in a storm? The impact of new port infrastructure on New Zealand exporter behaviour / By Richard Fabling, Arthur Grimes, and Lynda Sanderson, February 2011
Papers for 2010
DP2010/14 Monetary Policy, Inflation and Unemployment / By Nicolas Groshenny, December 2010
DP2010/13 What drives core inflation? A dynamic factor model analysis of tradable and nontradable prices / By Michael Kirker, December 2010
DP2010/12 Monetary policy implementation and uncovered interest parity: empirical evidence from Oceania / By Alfred Guender and Bevan Cook, September 2010
DP2010/11 A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models, and an empirical application to U.S. yield curve dynamics / By Leo Krippner, November 2010
DP2010/10 Does the Kiwi fly when the Kangaroo jumps? The effect of Australian macroeconomic news on the New Zealand dollar / By Andrew Coleman and Özer Karagedikli, November 2010
DP2010/09 Debt Dynamics and Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Wealth Changes /By Emmanuel De Veirman and Ashley Dunstan, October 2010
DP2010/08 Intertemporal Choice: A Nash Bargaining Approach /By David Baqaee, September 2010
DP2010/07 Exporting and performance: Market entry, expansion and destination characteristics /By Richard Fabling and Lynda Sanderson, September 2010
DP2010/06 Sharing a Risky Cake /By David Baqaee and Richard Watt, September 2010
DP2010/05 Using estimated models to assess nominal and real rigidities in the United Kingdom /By Güneş Kamber and Stephen Millard, August 2010
DP2010/04 Internationalised Production in a Small Open Economy /By Aurélien Eyquem and Güneş Kamber, August 2010
DP2010/03 Multi-period fixed-rate loans, housing and monetary policy in small open economies / By Jaromìr Beneš and Kirdan Lees, April 2010
DP2010/02 All together now: Do international factors explain relative price co-movements? / By Özer Karagedikli, Haroon Mumtaz, and Misa Tanaka, March 2010
DP2010/01 Evaluating household expenditures and their relationship with house prices at the microeconomic level /By Mark Smith, January 2010
Papers for 2009
DP2009/20 Measuring Changes in Firm-Level Volatility – An Application to Japan /By Emmanuel De Veirman and Andrew Levin, December 2009
DP2009/19 Whatever next? Export market choices of New Zealand firms / By Richard Fabling, Arthur Grimes, and Lynda Sanderson, December 2009
DP2009/18 Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information / By Leo Krippner, and Leif Anders Thorsrud, November 2009
DP2009/17 Global shocks, economic growth and financial crises - 120 years of New Zealand experience / By Michael D. Bordo, David Hargreaves, and Mizuho Kida, December 2009
DP2009/16 Structural Macro-Econometric Modelling in a Policy Environment / By Martin Fukač and Adrian Pagan, December 2009
DP2009/15 Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty / By Anthony Garratt, James Mitchell, and Shaun P. Vahey, December 2009
DP2009/14 Impulse Response Identification in DSGE Models / By Martin Fukač, December 2009
DP2009/13 The “suite” smell of success-Complementary personnel practices and firm performance / By Richard Fabling and Arthur Grimes, December 2009
DP2009/12 A Quarterly Post-World War II Real GDP Series for New Zealand / By Viv B. Hall and C. John McDermott, November 2009
DP2009/11 A cobweb model of financial stability in New Zealand / By Paul Bedford and Chris Bloor, November 2009
DP2009/10 A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models / By Leo Krippner, September 2009
DP2009/09 Entrepreneurship and aggregate merchandise trade growth in New Zealand / By Richard Fabling and Lynda Sanderson, September 2009
DP2009/08 Evaluating a monetary business cycle model with unemployment for the euro area / By Nicolas Groshenny, September 2009
DP2009/07 Developing stratified housing price measures for New Zealand / By Chris McDonald and Mark Smith, August 2009
DP2009/06 Analysing wage and price dynamics in New Zealand / By Ashley Dunstan, Troy Matheson and Hamish Pepper, June 2009
DP2009/05 Using wavelets to measure core inflation: the case in New Zealand / By David Baqaee, June 2009
DP2009/04 Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand / By Sandra Eickmeier and Tim Ng, June 2009
DP2009/03 Order flow and exchange rate changes: A look at the NZD/USD and AUD/USD / By Nick Smyth, April 2009
DP2009/02 Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand / By Chris Bloor and Troy Matheson, April 2009
DP2009/01 Revealing monetary policy preferences / By Christie Smith, April 2009
Papers for 2008
DP2008/19 The evolution of the Forecasting and Policy System (FPS) at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand / Felix Delbrück, Ashley Dunstan, David Hargreaves, Ashley Lienert, Hamish Pepper and Cath Sleeman, December 2008
DP2008/18 Combining Forecast Densities from VARs and Uncertain Instabilities / By Anne Sofie Jore, James Mitchell and Shaun Vahey, December 2008
DP2008/17 Does natural rate variation matter? Evidence from New Zealand / By Michael Kirker, December 2008
DP2008/16 Inheritances and their impact on housing equity withdrawal / By Phil Briggs, December 2008
DP2008/15 Practical Monetary Policies / By Alfred V.Guender and David Gillmore, October 2008
DP2008/14 Over the hedge? Exporters’ optimal and selective hedging choices / By Richard Fabling and Arthur Grimes, October 2008
DP2008/13 Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty / By Anthony Garratt, Gary Koop, Emi Mise and Shaun Vahey, September 2008
DP2008/12 The relative size of New Zealand exchange rate and interest rate responses to news / By Andrew Coleman and Özer Karagedikli, September 2008
DP2008/11 Limited Information Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE models / By Martin Fukač and Adrian Pagan, July 2008
DP2008/10 Incorporating judgement with DSGE models / By Jaromír Beneš, Andrew Binning and Kirdan Lees, June 2008
DP2008/09 Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: A large BVAR for New Zealand / By Chris Bloor and Troy Matheson, May 2008
DP2008/08 A macro stress testing model with feedback effects / By Mizuho Kida, May 2008
DP2008/07 Heterogeneous Expectations, Adaptive Learning, and Forward-Looking Monetary Policy / By Martin Fukač, May 2008
DP2008/06 The tax system and housing demand in New Zealand / By David Hargreaves, February 2008
DP2008/05 How do Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption Interact? Evidence from New Zealand / By Emmanuel De Veirman and Ashley Dunstan, February 2008
DP2008/04 'Automatic' cycle-stabilising capital requirements: what can be achieved? / By Tim Ng, February 2008
DP2008/03 Changes in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in New Zealand / By Aaron Drew, Özer Karagedikli, Rishab Sethi and Christie Smith, February 2008
DP2008/02 Explaining Movements in the NZ Dollar - Central Bank Communication and the Surprise Element in Monetary Policy? / By Özer Karagedikli and Pierre L Siklos, January 2008
DP2008/01 Some benefits of monetary policy transparency in New Zealand / By Aaron Drew and Özer Karagedikli, January 2008
Papers for 2007
DP2007/15 RBCs and DSGEs: The Computational Approach to Business Cycle Theory and Evidence / By Özer Karagedikli, Troy Matheson, Christie Smith and Shaun P. Vahey, November 2007
DP2007/14 Which nonlinearity in the Phillips curve? The absence of accelerating deflation in Japan / By Emmanuel De Veirman, September 2007
DP2007/13 An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: the importance of business opinion surveys / By Troy Matheson, September 2007
DP2007/12 Housing markets and migration in New Zealand, 1962-2006 / By Andrew Coleman and John Landon-Lane, September 2007
DP2007/11 Credit constraints and housing markets in New Zealand / By Andrew Coleman, July 2007
DP2007/10 Understanding the New Zealand current account: a structural approach / By Anella Munro and Rishab Sethi, July 2007
DP2007/09 Local linear impulse responses for a small economy / By Alfred A. Haug and Christie Smith, April 2007
DP2007/08 The McKenna Rule and UK World War I Finance / By James M Nason and Shaun P Vahey, April 2007
DP2007/07 The pitfalls of estimating transactions costs from price data: evidence from trans-Atlantic gold-point arbitrage, 1886-1905 / By Andrew Coleman, April 2007
DP2007/06 Conditioning and Hessians in analytical and numerical optimization - Some illustrations / By Christie Smith, April 2007
DP2007/05 A model of spatial arbitrage with transport capacity constraints and endogenous transport prices / By Andrew Coleman, March 2007
DP2007/04 Stylised facts about New Zealand business cycles / By Sharon McCaw, March 2007
DP2007/03 Satisficing Solutions for New Zealand Monetary Policy / By Jacek Krawczyk and Rishab Sethi, March 2007
DP2007/02 Nowcasting and predicting data revisions in real time using qualitative panel survey data / By Troy Matheson, James Mitchell and Brian Silverstone, January 2007
DP2007/01 Open economy DSGE-VAR forecasting and policy analysis - head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts / By Kirdan Lees, Troy Matheson and Christie Smith, January 2007
Papers for 2006
DP2006/12 The Present Value Model and New Zealand's current account / By Anella Munro and Rishab Sethi, December 2006
DP2006/11 Assessing the fit of small open economy DSGEs / By Troy Matheson, December 2006
DP2006/10 A new core inflation indicator for New Zealand / By Domenico Giannone and Troy Matheson, December 2006
DP2006/09 Uncovering the Hit-list for Small Inflation Targeters: A Bayesian Structural Analysis / By Timothy Kam, Kirdan Lees and Philip Liu, November 2006
DP2006/08 What do robust policies look like for open economy inflation targeters? / By Kirdan Lees, September 2006
DP2006/07 How costly is exchange rate stabilisation for an inflation targeter? The case of Australia / By Mark Crosby, Tim Kam and Kirdan Lees, July 2006
DP2006/06 Family trusts: ownership, size, and their impact on measures of wealth and home ownership / By Phil Briggs, July 2006
DP2006/05 Should monetary policy attempt to reduce exchange rate volatility in New Zealand? / By Dominick Stephens, May 2006
DP2006/04 Other stabilisation objectives within an inflation targeting regime: Some stochastic simulation experiments / By James Twaddle; David Hargreaves; Tim Hampton, May 2006
DP2006/03 A Small New Keynesian Model of the New Zealand economy / By Philip Liu, May 2006
DP2006/02 Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty / By Anthony Garratt, Gary Koop and Shaun P. Vahey, February 2006
DP2006/01 Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy / By Troy Matheson, February 2006
Papers for 2005
DP2005/07 Discretionary Policy, Potential Output Uncertainty, and Optimal Learning / By James Yetman, December 2005
DP2005/06 A Simple, Structural, and Empirical Model of the Antipodean Transmission Mechanism / By Thomas A Lubik, December 2005
DP2005/05 UIP, Expectations and the Kiwi / By Anella Munro, October 2005
DP2005/04 Reaction functions in a small open economy: What role for non-traded inflation? / By Ana Maria Santacreu, October 2005
DP2005/03 A happy "halfway-house"? Medium term inflation targeting in New Zealand / By Sam Warburton and Kirdan Lees, October 2005
DP2005/02 Mind your Ps and Qs! Improving ARMA forecasts with RBC priors / By Kirdan Lees and Troy Matheson, October 2005
DP2005/01 Factor model forecasts for New Zealand / By Troy Matheson, May 2005
Papers for 2004
DP2004/08 Examining finite-sample problems in the application of cointegration tests for long-run bilateral exchange rates / By Angela Huang, October 2004
DP2004/07 A model of Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the New Zealand and Australian dollar / By Simon Wren-Lewis, August 2004
DP2004/06 Improving implementation of inflation targeting in New Zealand: an investigation of the Reserve Bank's inflation errors / By Philip Liu, July 2004
DP2004/05 What can the Taylor rule tell us about a currency union between New Zealand and Australia? / By Nils Björksten, Arthur Grimes, Özer Karagedikli & Christopher Plantier, June 2004
DP2004/04 Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing? / By Michael Graff, May 2004
DP2004/03 The equilibrium exchange rate according to PPP and UIP / By Dominick Stephens, April 2004
DP2004/02 Do inflation targeting central banks behave asymmetrically? Evidence from Australia and New Zealand / By Özer Karagedikli and Kirdan Lees, April 2004
DP2004/01 Estimating a time varying neutral real interest rate for New Zealand / By Olivier Basdevant, Nils Björksten and Özer Karagedikli, February 2004
Papers for 2003
DP2003/10 Speculative behaviour, debt default and contagion: A stylised framework of the Latin American Crisis 2001-2002 / By Louise Allsopp, December 2003
DP2003/09 Monetary policy and the volatility of real exchange rates in New Zealand / By Ken West, November 2003
DP2003/08 The stabilisation problem: the case of New Zealand / By Kirdan Lees, November 2003
DP2003/07 Has the rate of economic growth changed? Evidence and lessons for public policy / By Matthew Shapiro, August 2003
DP2003/06 Estimates of time-varying term premia for New Zealand and Australia / By Michael Gordon, August 2003
DP2003/05 Learning process and rational expectations: an analysis using a small macroeconomic model for New Zealand / By Olivier Basdevant, May 2003
DP2003/04 Monetary policy transmission mechanisms and currency unions: A vector error correction approach to a Trans-Tasman currency union / By Alfred A Haug, Özer Karagedikli and Satish Ranchhod, May 2003
DP2003/03 Modelling structural change: the case of New Zealand / By Olivier Basdevant and David Hargreaves, April 2003
DP2003/02 On applications of state-space modelling in macroeconomics / By Olivier Basdevant, April 2003
DP2003/01 Financial deregulation and household indebtedness / By Leslie Hull, January 2003
Papers for 2002
DP2002/08 Currency Unions and Trade: Variations on Themes by Rose and Persson / By Dr Peter Kenen, December 2002,
DP2002/07 Currency unions and gravity models revisited / By Christie Smith, November 2002,
DP2002/06 Estimating a Taylor Rule for New Zealand with a time-varying neutral real rate / By L Christopher Plantier and Dean Scrimgeour, May 2002,
DP2002/05 Foreign-owned banks: Implication for New Zealand's financial stability / By Leslie Hull, April 2002,
DP2002/04 Extracting market expectations from option prices: an application to over-the-counter New Zealand dollar options / By Aron Gereben, April 2002,
DP2002/03 Monetary policy and inflation forecasting with and without the output gap / By Weshah Razzak, March 2002,
DP2002/02 Modelling the long-run real effective exchange rate of the New Zealand Dollar / By Ronald MacDonald, October 2001,
DP2002/01 Extracting expectations of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate from the bank-risk yield curve / By Leo Krippner, March 2002,
Papers for 2001
DP2001/7 Is the Taylor rule really different from the McCallum rule? / By Weshah Razzak, October 2001,
DP2001/6 How much do import price shocks matter for consumer prices? / By Tim Hampton, November 2001,
DP2001/5 Central banking: back to the future / By Bruce White, September 2001
DP2001/04 Exchange rate volatility and Currency Union: Some theory and New Zealand evidence / By Dean Scrimgeour, August 2001
DP2001/03 Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand? / By Aaron Drew, Viv Hall, John McDermott and Robert St Clair, August 2001
DP2001/02 Money in the era of inflation targeting / By W A Razzak, July 2001
DP2001/01 PPP-based analysis of New Zealand's equilibrium exchange rate / By Anne-Marie Brook and David Hargreaves, July 2001,
Papers for 2000
DP2000/10 Interest rate smoothing in New Zealand and other dollar bloc countries / By Aaron Drew and L Christopher Plantier, December 2000
DP2000/09 A macroeconomic balance measure of New Zealand's equilibrium exchange rate / By Anne-Marie Brook and David Hargreaves, December 2000
DP2000/08 Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty / By Victor Gaiduch and Ben Hunt, April 2000
DP2000/07 Stylised facts from output gap measures / By Alasdair Scott, January 2000
DP2000/06 A spectral analysis of New Zealand output gaps using Fourier and wavelet techniques / By Paul Conway and David Frame, June 2000
DP2000/05 Is the output gap a useful indicator of inflation / By Iris Claus, March 2000
DP2000/04 A multivariate unobserved components model of cyclical activity / By Alasdair Scott, January 2000
DP2000/03 Estimating potential output for New Zealand: a structural VAR approach / by Iris Claus, June 2000
DP2000/02 A comparison of the properties of NZM and FPS / By Aaron Drew and Benjamin Hunt, March 2000
DP2000/01 Uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag: implications for monetary policy / By Yuong Ha, February 2000
Papers for 1999
G99/10 SDS-FPS: a small demand-side version of the Forecasting and Policy System core model / By David Hargreaves, December 1999
G99/9 The myth of co-moving commodity prices / By Paul Cashin, C John McDermott and Alasdair Scott, December 1999
G99/8 Booms and slumps in world commodity prices / By Paul Cashin, C John McDermott and Alasdair Scott, December 1999
G99/7 Concordance in business cycles / By C John McDermott and Alasdair Scott, December 1999
G99/6 Survey expectations of monetary conditions in New Zealand: determinants and implications for the transmission of policy / By Leo Bonato, Robert St. Clair and Rainer Winkelmann, March 1999
G99/5 Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty / By Aaron Drew and Ben Hunt, August 1999
G99/4 Exchange rate effects and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a stochastic analysis using FPS / By Paul Conway, Aaron Drew, Ben Hunt and Alasdair Scott, May 1998
G99/3 The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis in inflation-targeting regimes / By Weshah Razzak, August 1999
G99/2 Noise trading and exchange rate regimes / By Olivier Jeanne and Andrew K Rose, March 1999
G99/1 Inter-forecast monetary policy implementation: fixed-instrument versus MCI-based strategies / By Ben Hunt, March 1999
Papers for 1998
G98/10 Price stability: some costs and benefits in New Zealand / By Leo Bonato, November 1998
G98/9 Core inflation: concepts, uses and measurements / By Scott Roger, July 1998
G98/8 Testing the predictive power of New Zealand bank bill futures rates / By Leo Krippner, June 1998
G98/7 The Forecasting and Policy System: preparing economic projections / By Aaron Drew and Ben Hunt, October 1998
G98/6 The Forecasting and Policy System: stochastic simulations of the core model / By Aaron Drew and Ben Hunt, October 1998
G98/5 The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues / By W A Razzak and Thomas Grennes, November 1998
G98/4 Business cycle asymmetries and the nominal exchange rate regimes / By W A Razzak, May 1998
G98/3 The Forecasting and Policy System: demand-side satellite models / By James Breece and Vincenzo Cassino, May 1998
G98/2 Productivity growth in New Zealand: economic reform and the convergence hypothesis / By Paul Conway and Ben Hunt, June 1998
G98/1 Determinants of New Zealand bond yields / By Kelly R Eckhold, January 1998
Papers for 1997
G97/9 Estimating potential output: a semi-structural approach / By Paul Conway and Ben Hunt, December 1997
G97/8 Inflation targeting in an open economy: strict or flexible inflation targeting? / By Lars E O Svensson, November 1997
G97/7 A robust measure of core inflation in New Zealand, 1949-96 / By Scott Roger, November 1997
G97/6 The alleged instability of nominal income targeting / By Bennett T. McCallum, August 1997
G97/5 Testing the rationality of the national bank of New Zealand's survey data / By W A Razzak, July 1997
G97/4 Current account and exchange rate behaviour under inflation targeting in a small open economy / By Francisco Nadal De Simone, July 1997
G97/3 Efficient rules for monetary policy / By Laurence Ball, Johns Hopkins University, January 1997
G97/2 The inflation-output trade-off: Is the Phillips Curve symmetric? A policy lesson from New Zealand / By Weshah Razzak, January 1997
G97/1 A measure of monetary conditions / By Richard Dennis, January 1997
