Data tables for the Monetary Policy Challenge

A summary of recent outturns of the key variables that Monetary Policy Challenge participants will be forecasting. These include some of the key economic indicators that participants may wish to refer to when formulating forecasts.


          Last updated: 20 May 2013
Indicators..
(Note: all data sourced from Statistics New Zealand unless otherwise stated)
  Frequency            
of GDP Monthly: Nov. 12 Dec. 12 Jan. 13 Feb. 13 Mar. 13 Apr. 13
National Bank Business Outlook - own activity - net %   31.6 31.4 31.4 37.6 32.4 30.3
  Quarterly: Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Dec. 12 Mar. 13
Business confidence (NZIER, QSBO) - net %   0.0 13.0 -4.0 8.0 20.0 23.0
Consumer confidence* - index   101.3 102.4 99.9 102.5 111.1 110.8
               
of consumption Quarterly: Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Dec. 12 Mar. 13
Real retail trade - Q%   1.4 0.2 1.2 -0.2 1.9 0.5
Consumer confidence* - index   101.3 102.4 99.9 102.5 111.1 110.8
               
of residential investment Monthly: Nov. 12 Dec. 12 Jan. 13 Feb. 13 Mar. 13 Apr. 13
Building consents - dwellings (number, s.a.)   1,427 1,571 1,557 1,626 1,478 ..
               
of total investment Monthly: Nov. 12 Dec. 12 Jan. 13 Feb. 13 Mar. 13 Apr. 13
National Bank Business Outlook - own activity - net %   32.0 31.0 31.0 38.0 32.0 30.0
               
of exports and imports of services Monthly: Nov. 12 Dec. 12 Jan. 13 Feb. 13 Mar. 13 Apr. 13
Short term visitor arrivals - 000s (s.a.)   215.3 219.6 214.5 224.4 226.7 ..
Short term departures NZ residents - 000s (sa)   180.4 179.4 178.7 180.5 177.4 ..
               
of exports and imports of goods Monthly: Nov. 12 Dec. 12 Jan. 13 Feb. 13 Mar. 13 Apr. 13
Merchandise trade - exports - nominal $m (sa)   3,898 3,898 3,714 3,991 3,872 ..
Merchandise trade - imports - nominal $m (sa)   4,064 3,457 3,952 3,823 3,652 ..
               
Fiscal indicators** Annual: Jun. 08 Jun. 09 Jun. 10 Jun. 11 Jun. 12 Jun. 13
Operating balance   2,384 -10,505 -4,509 -13,360 -14,897 1,918
%GDP   1.3% -5.7% -2.4% -6.7% -7.1% 0.9%
Net crown debt - $m   10,258 17,119 26,738 40,128 50,671 57,945
%GDP   5.5% 9.2% 13.9% 20.0% 24.3% 27.1%
               
of potential GDP Quarterly: Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Dec. 12 Mar. 13
Unemployment rate (HLFS) - % of labour force   6.3 6.7 6.8 7.3 6.8 6.2
Capacity utilisation (QSBO) - %   90.2 89.4 89.8 90.0 90.5 91.5
               
of CPI Monthly: Nov. 12 Dec. 12 Jan. 13 Feb. 13 Mar. 13 Apr. 13
Food prices - M%   -0.8 -0.2 1.9 -0.3 -1.3 0.2
  Quarterly: Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Dec. 12 Mar. 13
Import prices (OTI) - Q%   3.1 -1.4 1.5 -3.2 -0.6 ..
QES private sector wages - Q% (s.a.)   0.6 1.3 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.0
               
* Consumer Confidence is the Westpac McDermott Miller index.
** Source: The Treasury "2013 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update" released on Thursday 16 May 2013.

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